The
MSCI Hong Kong iShares (EWH) is an exchange-traded fund (ETF) that
invests in a basket of stocks that represent an index of the Hong Kong
stock market. Although the fund holds a large number of different
companies, its largest ten holdings account for nearly 70% of EWH's
value. In fact, Hutchison Whampoa Ltd. alone accounts for a whopping
14.5% of the fund's net asset value!
Please note that you can trade the largest holdings in the fund on
the Pink Sheets in the United States as American Depositary Receipts
(ADRs). I have provided the ticker symbols for these stocks in the
spreadsheet below. Some brokers do not allow you to buy and sell Pink
Sheet issues, and these companies might not file financial data with the
SEC. In many cases, the ADRs are not liquid and bid/ask spreads may be
very wide.
I have read many times that the Hong Kong stock market often leads the
Nasdaq, as Hong Kong is a large exporter in the technology world.
However, if you look at the make-up of EWH, one would question that
thinking. Almost 43% of the fund's holdings are involved in the real
estate and banking sectors. Meanwhile, capital goods account for 16% of
the fund, and some of that might be technology oriented. Still, the
largest pure technology play in the fund is telecom, which only accounts
for 2.24% of the fund's value. I also ran some lead and lag correlations
and find no such relationship between EWH and the Nasdaq. If anything,
recent history has seen Hong Kong lag the U.S. markets.
Overall, EWH does not have a very tight correlation with the U.S.
market. Part of this is because large moves in American stocks are
reflected in the next day's Hong Kong trading. With a correlation in the
60% range, EWH should provide some positive diversification effects to
your portfolio.
In prior articles regarding International funds, I warned that changes
in the dollar's value can have an immediate effect on the value of your
stocks. If the Japanese stock market rises 5%, but the dollar rises 5%
against the yen, then a Japanese fund would be unchanged in dollar
terms. However, in this case, the Hong Kong dollar does not float.
Instead, the government maintains the currency rate near 7.80 Hong Kong
dollars for one U.S. dollar.
That does not completely remove currency risk from the equation here,
though. The Hong Kong stock market may fall sharply when there are trade
tensions, and the United States wants China to let its currency and the
Hong Kong dollar float. Most analysts expect these currencies would
surge in value if that happened. That, of course, would add
substantially to the value of such a fund. However, strong gains in the
currency would hurt the stock market in Hong Kong because it would make
their exported goods much more expensive. Furthermore, if capital
controls were removed and Chinese were able to move their money out of
the country, then you could see an enormous move out of China, which
could hurt the value of the Chinese and Hong Kong currencies. There is
no way of knowing exactly what might occur in the future here, though I
doubt that the currency will be allowed to float for a long time to
come.
| iShares MSCI Hong Kong Index (EWH) | |||||
| Type: | International | ||||
| Similar funds: | Japan Fund (EWJ) | ||||
| Korea Fund (EWY) | |||||
| Options?: | Yes. Near-the-money contracts are fairly liquid. | ||||
| Performance Data | |||||
| YTD High: | $10.42 | 10/21/2003 | Annualized return since: | ||
| YTD Low: | $6.55 | 4/25/2003 | One-year | 19.08% | |
| YTD Return: | 27.46% | As of close 11/21/03 | Three-year | -4.19% | |
| Five-year | 2.90% | ||||
| Dividends: | $0.14 | past 12-mos | Life of fund* | -1.41% | |
| Expense Ratio: | 0.84% | * - Started trading 3/18/1996 | |||
| Correlation Data* | (1/02/02-10/31/03) | Holdings* | (as of 11/31/2003) | ||
| Dow Jones Industrials | 62.5% | Hutchison Whampoa (HUWHF.PK) | 14.54% | ||
| S&P 500 | 62.5% | Cheung Kong (Holdings) (CHEUF.PK) | 10.05% | ||
| Nasdaq Composite | 59.1% | Sun Hung Kai Properties Ltd (SUHJF.PK) | 9.07% | ||
| Nasdaq-100 | 57.6% | Hang Seng Bank Ltd (HSNGF.PK) | 8.53% | ||
| CLP Holdings Ltd (CLPHF.PK) | 5.75% | ||||
| EWJ | 50.3% | Swire Pacific Ltd Cl A (SWRAF.PK) | 4.90% | ||
| EWY | 58.2% | Hong Kong & China Gas Co (HOKCF.PK) | 4.26% | ||
| BOC Hong Kong (Holdings) (BNKHF.PK) | 4.17% | ||||
| Bank of East Asia Ltd (BKEAF.PK) | 3.92% | ||||
| Hongkong Electric Holdings (HGKGF.PK) | 3.92% | ||||
| * Percent top ten are of total | 69.11% | ||||
| Average Daily Volume | Average Daily Price Range | ||||
| Oct-03 | 791,061 | Oct-03 | 2.2% | ||
| 2003 YTD | 422,180 | 2003 YTD | 2.3% | ||
| 2002 | 341,285 | 2002 | 2.8% | ||
| * - Correlation measures how closely the two items track each other | * Includes prior day's close (true range) | ||||






