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Taking a Cue from the Richest Woman in
the World |
[http://www.streetauthority.com/includes/article-top-ao.htm]Published:
November 17, 2008
What can a woman born in New England in 1834 teach us
about investing in today's volatile investing climate?
Plenty.
In today's article, we'll take a brief glimpse at the career of "The
Witch of Wall Street" and consider where she might look for the best
investments in this downturn.
Hetty Green was one of
the savviest investors of all time. Her steely resolve,
unwavering discipline and glacial patience are every bit as
important to market success today as they were a hundred
years ago.

And yet Hetty -- once the richest
woman in the world -- remains
mostly a footnote to financial history, a curious bit of
eccentric Wall Street lore.
That's too bad. There's much to be learned from her.
Hetty's father, "Black Hawk" Robinson, was a notoriously
hard-driving New Bedford whaling magnate, and he imbued his
daughter with his business acumen and insight into the
darker side of human
nature. His was a not a rose-tinted, sentimental perspective. Black Hawk
taught his daughter never to owe anyone anything, not even a
kindness. Hetty wasn't merely tough, she was ruthless. "The
Witch of Wall Street" once foreclosed on a church. When she
died in 1916, she was worth $100 million, a fortune to rival
the richest men of her day.
Hetty played rough in a rough game. The unregulated markets --
where Hetty was absolutely the
only
woman -- were a dangerous
environment for the most seasoned and scurrilous traders. Even the most
cunning operators flamed out from time to time. Not Hetty.
She routinely beat the robber barons at their own game.
Addison
Cammack, for example,
was a successful cotton trader who had moved from Kentucky
to expand his fortune on Wall Street. Using his connections,
he learned that the Louisville & Nashville Railroad was
about to cut its dividend. Armed with this insider
information, he shorted the stock.
Short sellers borrow stock, then sell it. When the price goes down,
they buy back the shares at the reduced price and keep the
difference. They're still buying low and selling high, only
in reverse order. The risk, however, is that the stock will go up, not
down, and that a short seller will be forced to buy back the
shares for more than he initially received for them.
Insider trading -- illegal today -- helped mitigate the
downside risk. And
Cammack's
tip was
spot on: The railroad did indeed cut its dividend, and the
stock plummeted. All that remained was for
Cammack to buy
back the shares and count his money.
But there were no shares to be
had -- at any price.
Hetty Green, who had even
better
insider information than
Cammack, somehow figured
out what he was up to. So she cornered the market by
buying every share she could find.
Cammack was in a
fix. It was a textbook short squeeze.
Hetty let it leak that she had the 40,000 shares Cammack needed,
but she made him sweat for a few days before granting him an
audience. When he arrived, she was merciless. It was not a
negotiation so much as an execution. She demanded
$10 a share above her cost -- regardless of the market
price, which had subsequently fallen fully 30 points.
Hetty
decimated
Cammack and pocketed a $400,000 profit.
True story.
Here's the point that we should take to heart in today's or indeed
in any market: You can sell on good information, or you can buy
on better information.
And that, my friends, is precise where we are. That's the choice
this market offers.
As markets lose value, investors lose patience. They forget the
fundamental reasoning behind their stock purchases as fear
displaces reason. Investors see the value of their
portfolios eroding, and they move to limit their losses by
selling. The price could drop to zero, after all, and
sometimes it feels as if that's imminent, so let's sell
before it gets there. It's an understandable emotional
response.
These investors, to be sure, are selling on good -- that is,
accurate -- information.
In the short term, it makes sense. In the long term, selling in
down markets only compounds the problem.
That's because there is better -- more prescient -- information out
there. Savvy operators like
Hetty Green are all too happy to
buy when everyone else is unloading at ridiculously cheap
prices. They know the time will come when they get to
dictate the price, just as
Hetty did to Addison Cammack.
The trick is to ignore what the price is and focus on what the
price will be. It's purely a question of perspective. Hetty
didn't care what the price of Louisville & Nashville
Railroad was or what it did. It didn't matter in the
slightest. I doubt she monitored the ticker in her borrowed
office in the Chemical Bank. (She was far too miserly to pay
for an office.)
After all, Hetty knew what her stock was going to be worth later.
In this market, many investors are selling as fast as they
can. But Hetty was so sure of her position's
value that she made the only buyer wait to see her!
Hetty Green, like every successful investor before her and like
every successful investor to follow in her footsteps, never sold the present.
She always bought the future.
That's the mental ammunition you need. Remember why you invested in
the first place. Hetty herself summed it
up thus: "There is no secret in fortune making. All you have
to do is buy cheap and sell dear, act with thrift and
shrewdness and be persistent." Sell your stocks when
they're up, not when they're down.
Where Would
Hetty Invest Today?
There are a lot of areas in the current market where I think Hetty
Green would have seen attractive buys. But I think she'd
have been most drawn to the oil patch.
The worldwide economic downturn has international markets worried
that people are going to use less oil. Crude has fallen
dramatically since reaching its July 11 high of $147.27. In
fact, crude closed at $56.16 a barrel on Nov.12, the lowest
settlement since late January 2007.
The International Energy Agency (IEA), which monitors energy policy and
prices in 28 developed countries, is expected to cut its
global demand estimate. The most recent U.S. government
inventories reports show stockpiles of crude and gasoline
are rising. AAA reports the average national price for a
gallon of gasoline is $2.09, more than $2.00 lower than its record
of $4.11 July 17. All of this is adding even more chaos to an
extremely volatile market.
How have the oil companies fared in this environment? Oil hit its
peak July 11, when the Dow was at 11,100. The blue chips
have since given back -25%, and oil companies, as whole, have
declined some -71%.
This tumultuous
overreaction -- and certainly these share prices -- would have brought a
rare smile to Hetty's
otherwise severe visage. She would point out that
the world needs oil every bit as much as Addison
Cammack needed Louisville & Nashville stock.
|
Oil Company |
YTD Return |
|
Exxon Mobil
(XOM) |
-24.6% |
|
Chevron
(CVX) |
-26.3% |
|
BP (BP) |
-42.7% |
|
Conoco Phillips (COP) |
-42.9% |
|
Anadarko (APC) |
-46.1% |
|
Diamond Offshore (DO) |
-48.9% |
|
Murphy Oil (MUR) |
-50.0% |
|
Noble (NE) |
-53.1% |
|
Schlumberger (SLB) |
-53.2% |
|
Halliburton (HAL) |
-55.0% |
|
Marathon Oil
(MRO) |
-60.1% |
Extremely high prices don't last forever, nor do
exceedingly low prices. The reality is generally
somewhere closer to the middle, and prices tend to regress
to the mean. Eventually the world will have to pay for oil, perhaps not $150 a barrel,
but certainly not $50 a barrel, either. It's only a matter
of time until the world's oil companies' market valuations
are right-sized.
Why? Don't look at the financial pages, look at the almanac:
The
world currently uses 85.6 million barrels of oil a day,
or some 30 billion barrels a year, according to the International Energy Agency.
The
International Monetary Fund (IMF) pegs global economic growth at 3.7% this year and 2.2% in 2009. Anything less than 3% is considered
recessionary, though the IMF anticipates a late-2009 recovery.
OPEC,
which controls a majority of global production, seeks a
target price of between $70 and $90 a barrel for its crude. The IEA sees $80. The IMF projects a
crude price of $69 a barrel for 2009. The U.S. government puts the price of benchmark
West Texas Intermediate crude at $63.50.
The
U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates worldwide
total proven oil reserves at about 1.3 trillion barrels of crude.
|
This tells us that the world has an insatiable appetite for a
commodity that it has plenty of and that it can still afford
to pay for. And, frankly, that's all we need to know. All
the talk about peak oil and export quotas is just
something to talk about on TV. It's meaningless. Oil is a
commodity, and we're going to use it regardless of who
produces it or who sells it. The
current downturn, both in stocks and in crude, is not the
end of the world as we know it, it's merely a blip on the
radar. And you need look only at the futures market to prove
this point conclusively. The November 2010 price is $73.67.
Sure, the e, the e, the e, the e, the e, the e, the e, the e, the e, the e, the e, the IEA recently cut its
demand target. Whoa, scary, right? No. It is the policy of
Investor Update not to look
at the numbers but to
look behind the numbers.
The IEA said demand would soften by 700,000 barrels. Well,
big deal. Don't confuse something that sounds like a lot
with something that actually is a lot. The numbers are good
information, but the numbers in context are far better
information. The bottom line: Global demand is 85 million
barrels a day -- 700,000 is less than 1% of that.
So if crude prices fell 1% after news like that, you might not
expect a rebound until demand increased. But that's not what happened
in the market. What happened in the market has exactly zero
correlation to reality, it's all based on panic. But
eventually someone is going to have to pay the piper, both
for the crude and the companies that produce it. . . . . . . . . .
The good information says oil prices are down and that oil
companies are worth less as a result. The better information
tells us this is temporary. The smart money is buying oil, not
selling.
When this chapter of financial history is written, do you want to
be Addison Cammack, or do you want to be Hetty Green?
You Can Buy Something Hetty
Green Never Could
Investing in the "awl bidness" -- as it's known in Texas --
normally would require buying at least a dozen of its
biggest players, such as the names in the chart above. Hetty
could have done this with no trouble, and so could you.
But there is a far easier way. It's an option you have that Hetty,
despite her vast wealth, never did. The secret is the
exchange-traded fund (ETF), a basket of securities that acts like
a mutual fund but is traded like a stock. You place one
trade and add the entire industry to your portfolio.
We've identified the best oil-centered ETF -- a supercharged little
dervish that will
double the oil industry's return. That
way, when companies like Chevron, Marathon and Halliburton
-- to name three -- experience the industry's inevitable
rebound, you're prepared to profit, and at
twice the rate of
most of stockholders.
To get the name of this oil ETF and learn how to use ETFs to play
other sectors,
read our report here.
[http://www.streetauthority.com/includes/editor-profiles-ao.htm]
Disclosure: Andy Obermueller
owns shares of HAL.
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Investing Doesn't Get Any Easier Than This |
Stock picker Amy
Calistri's strategy is as simple as investing gets -- just one idea
a month designed to make money in today's market. Invest this way
and you don't have to worry about oil prices, automaker bailouts, or
what the Fed is up to -- because every "bad" economic development
actually helps some investment or another.Your investing life can
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Go here to learn about Amy's simple investing strategy.
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