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Government's Biofuel Timetable Could Spell +15,900% Growth
+15,900% growth might seem far-fetched... but it's not. In fact, it
is mandated by law. And I've identified the ONLY stock positioned to
capture this growth.
The
Silver Lining to a Falling Dollar
Despite the U.S. national debt, there is a silver lining for income
investors. This massive spending, combined with movement out of U.S.
Treasuries, is going to take its toll on the dollar, and
international income investors could reap the rewards in the form of
higher dividends. |
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Federal Law Mandates +15,900%
Growth for a Biofuel only a Handful of Firms Can Produce |
[http://www.streetauthority.com/includes/article-top-ao.htm]Published:
June 11, 2009
In 1976 a businessman in North Central Kansas commissioned a CPA
firm to do a feasibility study. At issue: The financial viability of a
commercial-scale ethanol plant. This particular businessman and his
partner owned farmland and grew a little corn, and the ethanol concept
that had gained currency in the post-oil embargo 1970s piqued their
interest.
When the feasibility study came in, though, the answer was abundantly
clear. The technology wasn't there and the project didn't seem to be
financially viable. So the businessman -- my father -- concentrated on
other ventures. It turned out to be a wise move, as most of the people
who invested in ethanol in those years lost money.
Though ethanol has since grown to be a significant element of our
national energy strategy, the financial viability of the fuel never grew
stronger than when Dad first investigated the venture. Ethanol, in fact,
has never existed without significant federal support in the form of
subsidies and import tariffs.
Today, bolstered by billions of dollars in federal largesse, the nation
produces about 10 billion gallons a year of corn-based ethanol. That's
on track with federal targets for its production, which peak in 2015 at
15 billion gallons. How you view that depends on your perspective. It
creates a ceiling on the domestic market, sure. But lots of companies
would love for a +50% increase in their market to be written into
federal law.
That federal law is the Energy Independence and Security Act of
2007. And it requires the country use a total of 36 billion gallons of
biofuel by 2022. The law went into effect on Jan. 1, 2009.
The rub is that only 15 billion gallons can come from corn-based
ethanol. The lion's share of the 36 billion gallon total -- 21 billion
gallons, or 58.3% -- must come from "advanced biofuels" that are 50%
cleaner than gasoline. Of that total, 16 billion gallons must come from
something called "cellulosic" biofuel.
|
Year |
Renewable
(Ethanol) |
'Advanced' Biofuel |
Cellulosic Biofuel |
|
2008 |
9.0 |
|
|
|
2009 |
10.5 |
0.6 |
|
|
2010 |
12.0 |
1.0 |
0.1 |
|
2011 |
12.6 |
1.4 |
0.3 |
|
2012 |
13.5 |
2 |
0.5 |
|
2013 |
13.8 |
2.8 |
1.0 |
|
2014 |
14.1 |
3.8 |
1.8 |
|
2015 |
15.0 |
5.5 |
3.0 |
|
2016 |
15.0 |
7.3 |
4.3 |
|
2017 |
15.0 |
9.0 |
5.5 |
|
2018 |
15.0 |
11.0 |
7.0 |
|
2019 |
15.0 |
13.0 |
8.5 |
|
2020 |
15.0 |
15.0 |
10.5 |
|
2021 |
15.0 |
18.0 |
13.5 |
|
2022 |
15.0 |
21.0 |
16.0 |
|
Growth |
+66.7% |
+3,400% |
+15,900% |
|
Cellulose is a compound found in all plants,
from hardwood trees to the grass in your yard. It's the most
common organic compound on Earth. Chemically, it's a sugar
-- that's what the "-ose" ending on the word indicates --
and that means it can easily be fermented into ethanol.
And while corn-based ethanol does have modest growth
prospects over the next few years, cellulosic ethanol's
trajectory -- which, again, is written into federal law --
just blows corn out of the water. That's because the United
States doesn't produce much cellulosic ethanol right now,
mostly because the technology is still being refined.
That being said, the technology is very, very close to
coming online. Several demonstration-scale plants are
operational. After scientists nail down the process, the
U.S. is going to watch the biofuel industry go from
producing basically zero gallons of cellulosic ethanol to
production of 16 billion gallons. That's a +15,900% increase
in only a dozen years.
A +50% gain is nice. You invest $10,000, you walk away with
$15,000. But a +15,900% gain is something else altogether:
It turns $10,000 into $1.6 million. Now, how do you think
that rate of growth is going to translate to corporate
earnings in this industry? Let me spell it out for you: The
investors who get in on these companies are going to be
putting high-test cellulosic ethanol fuel into their
Ferraris.
[http://www.streetauthority.com/includes/editor-profiles-ao.htm]
Disclosure: None.
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