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As Investors Flee The Dollar for Safer Alternatives, Australia Presents An Ideal Candidate

 

By Nathan Slaughter
Editor, The ETF Authority

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Published:  June 11, 2009

Have you checked your bank statements lately? What you see just might shock you.

With the Federal Reserve slashing short-term interest rates to near zero, money markets, CDs and other interest-bearing accounts are paying next to nothing. One of my banks is currently offering a paltry 0.25% on ordinary savings -- thanks, but no thanks.

And as any first-year economics student could tell you, you're actually getting even less than what's quoted after the nominal rate has been adjusted for inflation. Should prices for everyday goods and services tick higher, every dollar sitting in these low-yielding accounts might actually be losing money in real terms.

Regardless of where your assets are parked, the prognosis is for inflation to heat up at some point -- that's the price that must be paid for loose monetary policy and trillions in government spending. And while the financial crisis has helped prop up the U.S. dollar in this time of uncertainty, it seems likely the greenback will resume its slide once the crisis has passed.

With that in mind, I think it's a smart idea for most people to have at least a modest percentage of their assets denominated in something other than U.S. dollars -- gold is one idea, and currency-based funds like this one from Rydex are another.

Essentially, CurrencyShares Australian Dollar Trust (NYSE: FXA) acts as a type of synthetic foreign money market fund. The fund holds Australian dollars in an interest-bearing bank account in London, using part of the proceeds to cover a 0.40% annual price tag and then disbursing the rest to shareholders.

Interest rates have come down almost everywhere, but the portfolio is currently earning about +2.1% and monthly distributions stand at $0.14 per share. Of course, those payments will be augmented whenever the Australian dollar is gaining strength on the U.S. dollar.

And as I explained in my profile of Aberdeen Australia Equity (NYSE: IAF), the odds for a stronger Aussie currency are good.

After sliding to a 5-year low of $0.60 last October amid the unwinding of the Yen carry trade, the Australian dollar has come racing back. And it's easy to see why.

Australia has seen a flurry of upbeat economic data recently, from healthy job creation to robust retail sales growth. Plus, Australia's resource-driven markets are benefiting from a broad recovery in China and the anticipation of stronger energy and metals exports. In the meantime, first quarter GDP climbed +0.4% -- a far cry from the precipitous drops in most countries.

Against that backdrop, the Aussie dollar touched a 9-month peak last week of $0.82 -- about +35% above its lows. Meanwhile, in addition to its monthly payouts, FXA shares have bounced from $60 to $80.

FXA shouldn't be considered a substitute for a risk-free bank account; the shares will fluctuate. And I don't recommend currency speculation either -- Australia's own economists were just caught off guard by a surprising trade deficit, the first in nine months.

However, Australia's short-term interest rates are near 3% -- the highest of any developed market in the world. And with rates already at a 50-year low and the economy stabilizing, I don't see much in the way of additional tightening. That should help keep the Aussie dollar one of the world's most favored currencies.


Good investing!
 




Nathan Slaughter
Editor
The ETF Authority, Half-Priced Stocks

To receive in-depth guidance on today's leading exchange-traded funds (ETFs), plus a proprietary ranking system designed to uncover today's most profitable funds, please subscribe to Nathan Slaughter's premium ETF investing newsletter -- The ETF Authority

Disclosure: Nathan Slaughter does not own shares of BRF. 

 

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