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This Monopolistic Firm is Now Trading 25% Below its Fair Value

 

By Nathan Slaughter
Editor, Half-Priced Stocks

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Published:  April 19, 2007

Chunghwa Telecom ADR (NYSE: CHT) is a former state-owned provider of telecommunications services in Taiwan. Thanks to sweeping regulatory changes enacted a decade ago, privatization has allowed individual investors a piece of this highly profitable business -- which conveniently trades as an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) on the New York Stock Exchange.

Here in the U.S., the telecom industry is often marked by brutal competition. While Taiwan also has its share of competition, virtually no other player comes close to matching up with Chunghwa. The firm is Taiwan's only integrated operator; it controls a dominant 95%-plus share of the nation's fixed-line phone business with an established base of around 13 million traditional phone customers.

As is the case with nearly all telecom companies, the fixed-line segment is somewhat stagnant. Fortunately, though, the Taiwanese are quite fond of their cell phones, and the country has a 90% penetration rate in the wireless market -- among the highest in the world. As the nation's leading provider of wireless services (with a roughly 40% market share), Chunghwa rakes in a steady stream of cash flows from its 9 million users. Many of them have signed up for third-generation (3G) mobile service -- which is about 30% higher in terms of average revenues per user.

Finally, the company is also the undisputed leader of broadband Internet and high-speed data services. This is actually Chunghwa's fastest-growing segment, and the firm has enrolled more than 350,000 new broadband Internet subscribers over the past twelve months alone.

From the old to the new, Chunghwa is the clear market leader in all three telecom service areas: fixed line, wireless, and Internet. Not only does that lend itself to considerable economies of scale, but as the nation's only integrated provider, the company has a natural competitive advantage when it comes to bundling services.

All told, those services generate a steady stream of high-margin revenues that churn out roughly $2 billion per year in annual free cash flows. And with relatively light spending needs (capex spending represented less than 15% of revenues last year), the company is typically able to return around 90% of its net income to shareholders -- as evidenced by a robust 6.3% dividend yield.

Given the high saturation of the Taiwanese market, Chunghwa is unlikely to post stellar growth rates. However, revenues still advanced modestly last year, and operating cash flow climbed a healthy +16%.

The stock is currently trading at a sharp discount to its $27 fair value estimate, less than two times its book value, and has a rich cash flow yield in excess of 15%. By comparison, a domestic counterpart like Verizon also trades around two times book value, but with lower market share and more competition. It's also worth noting that Chunghwa maintains a pristine balance sheet for a telecom company -- with more than $2 billion in cash and almost zero debt.

Thanks for reading!




Nathan Slaughter
Editor
Half-Priced Stocks, The ETF Authority

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