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A Major Buyback Plan Has Home Depot Ready to Soar

 

By Nathan Slaughter
Editor, Half-Priced Stocks

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Published:  August 16, 2007

Home Depot (NYSE: HD, $33.06) is the world's leading home improvement retailer, operating a chain of more than 2,200 superstores throughout North America. Combined, those stores generate more than $1.5 billion in sales per week, second only to Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT).

Home Depot has worked diligently in recent years to overcome perceived customer service issues, implement better inventory management, and improve the shopping atmosphere.

While the turmoil in the housing market has made for a tough operating environment lately, Home Depot still managed to deliver double-digit sales growth last year -- with revenues now fast approaching the $100 billion mark. And with capital expenditures only taking up about 4% of those sales, the company churned out a $4 billion mountain of free cash flow in 2006.

Over the years, management has been able to adroitly manage the firm's growth plans, while still returning copious amounts of cash to shareholders. From 2000 to 2005, Home Depot gave back roughly 60% of its earnings -- spending $3 billion on dividend payments and more than $10 billion for share repurchases. Last year alone, the company shelled out $6.7 billion to repurchase 174 million shares. However, this pales in comparison to what is coming in the months ahead.

In mid-June, Home Depot announced plans to sell its HD supply business, which provides building materials and other products to professional contractors. While this division represents about 13% of the firm's total revenues, the divestiture will allow management to focus on the firm's core retail operations. More importantly, it will also yield a cash windfall of about $10 billion.

And what better place to invest those proceeds (along with roughly $12 billion in new debt and cash on hand) than put it right back into Home Depot stock? The announced $22.5 billion repurchase program will be one of the largest in history -- enough to buyback about one-third of the firm's existing shares. When added to the $16.5 billion already spent over the past five years, roughly 50% of Home Depot's shares will have been repurchased since 2002.

Not surprisingly, Wall Street applauded the news, sending the shares up nearly +5% the day following the announcement on quadruple the average daily trading volume.

Last month, management announced that as part of its plan to repurchase the shares as soon as possible, it was extending a tender offer for 250 million shares -- where shareholders can elect to sell back some or all of their shares at prices between $39 and $44 per share.

That price has since been scaled back to a range of $37 - $42 per share, largely because the company is now expecting to rake in a little less than previously anticipated for its HD Supply unit -- a good indication that the borrowers have found it tougher than expected to obtain the necessary funding given recent tightening in the credit markets.

Nevertheless, while the company certainly has some challenges ahead, we think this is an opportune time to establish a position in Home Depot. The major recapitalization should put a floor on the share price, and future repurchases (along with improved operating performance) should help push the stock towards our $54 fair value estimate over the next couple years.

With a little cooperation from the housing market, that could happen sooner rather than later.

Good investing!




Nathan Slaughter
Editor
Half-Priced Stocks, The ETF Authority

To receive in-depth guidance on today's leading value opportunities, plus educational guidance, please subscribe to Nathan Slaughter's premium value investing newsletter -- Half-Priced Stocks
 

 

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