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Carla Pasternak's Premiere Issue of High-Yield International Just Released
Income expert Carla Pasternak's debut issue of High-Yield International covers a Taiwanese manufacturer yielding 9.5%... a rare Mexican monopoly yielding 13.4%... and other top-performing investments yielding up to 19.0%.
 

Government's Biofuel Timetable Could Spell +15,900% Growth
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The Silver Lining to a Falling Dollar
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Benefit from China's Expansion with Shares of this Shipping Firm

 

By Nathan Slaughter
Editor, Half-Priced Stocks

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Published:  September 25, 2007

Eagle Bulk Shipping (Nasdaq: EGLE, $25.94) -- This dry bulk shipper uses a fleet of dozens of vessels to transport coal, grain, iron ore, and other essential products to ports around the world.

Rather than operate in the volatile "spot" market (the current daily market for ship rentals), Eagle books its ships on long-term fixed-rate charters -- protecting against price fluctuations and locking in high rates. Because guaranteed charter revenues are all but in the bank, Eagle has one of the most predictable near-term cash flow streams around. Management also has a goal of returning nearly all surplus cash flow to shareholders through generous dividend distributions.

Booming economic expansion in China has fueled a surge in demand for raw materials like iron ore (used to make steel) and coal (used to generate power). Meanwhile, worldwide shipping capacity has remained fairly tight, pushing shipping rates into record-high territory. These higher shipping rates will prove to be great news for Eagle shareholders, leading to higher revenues as the firm signs new long-term charters and as its existing charters come up for renewal.

From a big-picture perspective, construction and infrastructure projects in fast-growing emerging markets will spell rising demand for products like iron ore and cement -- and ocean-going ships are often the only means of transport. Right now, demand for shipping far outweighs the available supply. As a result, the Baltic Dry Index (which measures shipping rates) has soared to one record high after another in recent weeks.

Of course, new ships are being built, but analysts generally agree that capacity won't begin to catch up with demand until around 2010. In fact, some analysts are even forecasting that dry bulk shipping could be entering a secular bull market that could last for 25 years, punctuated only by the occasional cyclical slowdown.

As for Eagle, the company recently completed a massive acquisition of 26 "Supramax" vessels from a Greek shipping firm for $1.1 billion. This deal will more than double the company's fleet from 23 to 49 vessels and will boost its tonnage by +124% to 2.7 million deadweight tons (DWT). The purchase will also reduce the average ship age in the fleet to just two years. So while most rivals will have to gradually replace aging vessels, Eagle should be set for years to come.

Most importantly, nearly all of the acquired ships are already booked under long-term multi-year charters that will bring in minimum revenues of about $1 billion -- and potentially much more, thanks to profit-sharing agreements. Better still, as old contracts expire, the company also has the opportunity to renew them at higher rates. For example, the smallest ship in the firm's fleet, which was earning about $24,500 per day, just signed a new two-year charter at $34,500 per day -- an increase of +40%.

If owning 23 vessels in this market is good, then owning 49 is even better. Before the acquisition, the company stood to receive about $275 million in minimum contracted revenue -- that total now stands at $1.2 billion. As a result, management should have little trouble meeting the firm's annual dividend distributions of $1.88 per share (for a 7.2% yield), and future dividend hikes appear likely.

With a much stronger cash flow stream, the firm's fair value has increased dramatically, and we recently revised our target price for EGLE to $32 per share.

There is always the risk that a global economic downturn could put downward pressure on shipping rates and batter the shares of many dry bulk shippers, which tend to be highly volatile. However, we think the rewards outweigh the risks at this point, and shareholders should look forward to steady contract-based revenues and robust dividend distributions from EGLE.

Good investing!




Nathan Slaughter
Editor
Half-Priced Stocks, The ETF Authority

To receive in-depth guidance on today's leading value opportunities, plus educational guidance, please subscribe to Nathan Slaughter's premium value investing newsletter -- Half-Priced Stocks
 

 

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