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Carla Pasternak's Premiere Issue of High-Yield International Just Released
Income expert Carla Pasternak's debut issue of High-Yield International covers a Taiwanese manufacturer yielding 9.5%... a rare Mexican monopoly yielding 13.4%... and other top-performing investments yielding up to 19.0%.
 

Government's Biofuel Timetable Could Spell +15,900% Growth
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The Silver Lining to a Falling Dollar
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Chipotle's (CMG) Low Price Makes Value Investors Salivate

 

By Nathan Slaughter
Editor, Half-Priced Stocks

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Published:  August 25, 2008

The market is in turmoil, inflation is rising, the economy is teetering on the edge of recession, and investors are in full panic mode.

That's soothing music to a value investor's ears. After all, we're the bargain hunters of the investment world. And when the market is booming and nobody wants to part with their stocks, our job can be tough. But when bearish sentiment reaches a crescendo and investors can't exit their positions fast enough, shopping is good.

These rare buying opportunities only come around once or twice a decade.

The last time the entire market traded at such drastically marked-down prices was in 2002, when downtrodden investors were willing to sell companies like Research In Motion (Nasdaq: RIMM) for a split-adjusted $5 per share, or Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) for just $12 a share.  Forward-looking investors who took advantage of the rampant pessimism have since been rewarded with massive gains of more than +1,000% on each. And those are hardly isolated examples.

Let's Hear Some Applause for the Bear
No one likes to see daily bloodletting in the market. But they're necessary: In a perfectly efficient market, we could never buy a stock at a discount -- or sell one at a premium. Every security would be perfectly priced, all the time.

Given the state of the market, I've been on the lookout for stocks that have been dumped in the 50%-off bucket.  Price wasn't the only consideration; some stocks that have been cut in half may be facing serious issues and may now be trading about where they should be.

Instead of beaten up banks facing deteriorating loan portfolios or unproven small-caps with hefty losses, I focused my search on established, profitable companies with identifiable competitive advantages. And I zeroed in on unfairly punished companies whose long-term fundamental outlooks are the same today as they were 12 months ago before the market began its downward slide.

I think Chipotle is about the tastiest pick here. From the day the burrito maker was spun off from McDonald's, the company has been a favorite in the fast-casual dining segment. The stock hit the market at about $45 a share in January 2006, and within two years had ascended to the dizzying height of $155.

But like many highfliers before it, the stock couldn't sustain that lofty valuation and fell back to Earth once investors realized they had gotten carried away. The gains evaporated; today the shares are back trading in the upper $60s and are looking quite palatable for value investors.

Chipotle lies somewhere between fast-food and casual dining. Patrons begin lining up at the door and then wait as their tacos, burritos and salads are prepared before them assembly-style using fresh ingredients. Chipotle offers the speed, convenience and pricing of a fast-food outlet, but the quality and ambience of a sit-down restaurant -- you won't find cilantro-lime rice and shredded beef with cumin, cloves and garlic just anywhere.

That rare combination has kept customers piling in even under these extraordinarily challenging conditions. While most rivals are struggling to tread water, Chipotle has posted a sizeable +8.5% gain in same-store sales so far this year and a +27% bump in both overall revenues and profits.

Nevertheless, with comps having grown at a torrid double-digit pace for more than a decade, investors have reacted harshly to signs of deceleration. Rising costs for things like cheese and guacamole have also become a concern.

Still, the company's ability to navigate this tough climate is impressive and bodes well for a time when consumers begin eating out more -- and rest assured that time will come. Plus, the Chipotle concept is still catching on around the country. In fact, management is planning to add as many as 140 new locations this year and deliver healthy +25% annual earnings growth for years to come.

 




Nathan Slaughter
Editor
Half-Priced Stocks, The ETF Authority

To receive in-depth guidance on today's leading value opportunities, plus educational guidance, please subscribe to Nathan Slaughter's premium value investing newsletter -- Half-Priced Stocks
 

 

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