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An Undervalued Casino With +38% in Upside Potential

 

By Nathan Slaughter
Editor, Half-Priced Stocks

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Published:  September 1, 2008

While many industries tied to discretionary consumer spending have been roughed up by this downturn, the gaming sector has been ground zero. And Wynn Resorts (Nasdaq: WYNN, $95.42), just like its peers, can be had for a fraction of its actual fair value -- sweetening the odds for those looking to place their bet on this top-tier casino operator.

CEO Steve Wynn is the consummate real estate developer. In fact, many credit Wynn as being the architect of Las Vegas' transformation from a rough-around-the-edges gaming town into a sophisticated, world-class entertainment destination.

He began with the Mirage in 1989, built for a then-exorbitant cost of $630 million that many said would never be recouped. But the upscale property paid for itself within 18 months -- volcano and all -- and Wynn's critics fell silent. He went on to build ever more lavish mega-resorts like Treasure Island and Bellagio before cashing in his chips and eventually forming a new company.

Based on Wynn's vision and reputation alone, investors bid the newly minted shares up some +400% by April 2005, pinning a $6 billion market cap on the company before it ever took in the first penny in revenues.

Wynn's signature resort opened for business soon after, and the over-the-top $2.7 billion creation became an instant hit with affluent visitors. At a staggering building cost of $1 million per room, the resort was the most expensive privately funded Wynn Resorts development in history. Whenever your poolside cabana comes with its own iPod and there is a Ferrari dealership on site, you know you're not staying at a run-of-the-mill resort.

The company has since unveiled a dazzling $1.2 billion resort in Macau. Just a tiny dot of land jutting into the South China Sea, Macau is ideally located to capitalize on the ravenous gaming appetites of hundreds of millions of Asian players. In fact, the gaming hotspot has already surpassed Las Vegas as the world's top-grossing gaming destination.

So how are these two properties doing today?

The Wynn Las Vegas continues to shine in even the darkest of conditions. Over the past three months, the resort has taken in over $120 million in gaming revenues -- down from last year, but still stellar in absolute terms. Meanwhile, revenues outside the casino were actually up for the quarter, with the hotel, food/beverage, retail and entertainment departments chipping in a total of $212 million in revenues.

While other resort owners have had to slash hotel room rates to drum up business, Wynn is still charging over $300 per night -- and getting it. In fact, occupancy has barely budged during this downturn and remains at 96.5%.

And across the globe, Wynn Macau has quickly become one of the world's most profitable casino resorts. Each of the property's 1,258 slots is now taking in $359 in revenues per day, with slot wins spiking +90% last quarter. Macau's ability to lure high-rolling baccarat players has each of the resort's tables generating hefty wins of $17,300 per day. With a little number crunching, it's easy to see why revenues and EBITDA at the resort have climbed +50% and +67%, respectively, year-over-year.

Overall, impressive gains in Macau have been more than enough to offset the mixed results in Las Vegas. Company revenues through the first half of 2008 have jumped +21% to $1.6 billion, while operating income has increased modestly to $236 million -- and this during an unprecedented downturn.

Looking ahead, Wynn has already earmarked $3 billion for two new high-end resorts (both dubbed "Encore"), which are under construction adjacent to existing Wynn properties in Las Vegas and Macau. Both stand to juice cash flows dramatically once they open to the public. Wynn also operates a beautiful (if underutilized) 140-acre golf course on the Las Vegas Strip that is easily worth more than $2 billion based on the going rate for prime Strip real estate.

I conservatively value the company's assets and discounted cash flows at $132 per share. Thanks to this overblown sell-off, investors can now enjoy a gain of +38% before WYNN hits its fair value.




Nathan Slaughter
Editor
Half-Priced Stocks, The ETF Authority

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