Important Updates for Investors
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The
Silver Lining to a Falling Dollar
Despite the U.S. national debt, there is a silver lining for income
investors. This massive spending, combined with movement out of U.S.
Treasuries, is going to take its toll on the dollar, and
international income investors could reap the rewards in the form of
higher dividends. |
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| Mid-Month
Market Snapshot |
Published: June 14, 2004
Stocks
Despite the fact that the market is now bracing for an interest rate
hike at the end of the month, stocks continued to rally during the first
two weeks of June. Positive corporate earnings news boosted investor
sentiment, helping the S&P 500 to inch up 16 points, or +1.4% ahead
of its May close.
Meanwhile, interest-rate-sensitive income-oriented stocks have been
mixed over the past few weeks. After a 4-point spike on June 7th, real
estate investment trusts closed down, with the benchmark Morgan Stanley
REIT index 2.5 points off its May 28th close. Investors continued to
park their money in defensive, non-cyclical stocks that are going to be
less sensitive to changing rates. Many of these blue-chip companies also
pay dividends, and as a result, the Dow Jones Select Dividend Index
gained 4.2 points, up +1% for the first half of June.
Bonds
U.S. treasuries declined for two consecutive weeks early in the month on
rumblings from Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan that he might
accelerate the pace of future interest rate hikes in order to stem
inflation. The Fed Chief warned that if inflation proceeds faster than
expected, he “will do what is required to achieve price stability.”
The implied yield on the July fed funds future contract shows that
traders have already priced in a 100% chance that the Fed will lift its
benchmark rate 25 basis points to 1.25% later this month.
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Yields on the benchmark 10-year treasury have climbed
in the past two weeks to 4.8% as investors have fled fixed-income
securities. From this year’s mid-March low of 3.65%, the benchmark
yield has gained nearly +32% ahead of rising interest rates. Short-term
issues, which tend to be much more sensitive to rate changes, posted
even greater losses over the two-week period. Yields on the 3-month
treasury surged +18.5% to 1.27% in response to expected interest rate
changes.
Outlook
Despite the challenges posed by higher interest rates, market research
firm Standard & Poor's still believes its S&P 500 index will
reach 1,215 by year-end. In addition, the group believes higher
corporate profits will more than offset the effects of higher interest
rates. Standard & Poor's predicts operating earnings of member
stocks are likely to be up +19% this year. That forecast appears to be
on target, as member companies have recently reported second-quarter
profit gains of +19.9%.
The good news for income investors is that higher earnings typically
translate into richer dividend payouts to shareholders. As interest
rates rise, solid high-yield stocks should remain attractive. Unlike
bonds, which lose value as yields rise, carefully selected blue-chip
stocks offer both dividend income and the potential for capital
appreciation.
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Please Note: The above article was merely a
small excerpt from an issue of our premium income newsletter -- High-Yield
Investing. In each issue Carla Pasternak presents
a wealth of information and timely investment ideas to help you earn a
steady income stream from your investments. To receive a
complimentary three-week trial or to learn more about our High-Yield
Investing service, please visit the following link: http://www.StreetAuthority.com/subscribe.asp#hy |
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