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This REIT Yields 9.0% and Should Offer Above-Average Gains

By Carla Pasternak
Editor, High-Yield Investing
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Published:  June 2, 2008

Redwood Trust (NYSE: RWT, $33.75) is a real estate investment trust (REIT) that specializes in jumbo residential loans (mortgages of $417,000 or higher) through highly complex instruments called "credit enhanced securities" (CESs). Started in 1994, the company has been highly successful, providing a compounded annual return of +15.6%, including reinvested dividends.

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Redwood has a history of regularly raising dividends. In 2000, for example, it distributed $1.61 per share. That amount jumped to $2.80 in 2005, and the company now pays $0.75 a quarter, which creates a projected annual payout of $3.00 for 2008.

In addition, each November the company has historically distributed a special, variable payout based entirely on additional earnings. In 2007, this amount was $2.00 per share, creating total dividends of $5.00. At current prices that amounts to a historical yield of 14.8%.

In its latest annual report, management warned investors not to expect a special dividend this year. As such, you can anticipate a smaller total distribution of $3.00 per share, giving the stock a still hefty forward yield of 9.0%.

Roughly 40% of Redwood's business is done in California. The CES process involves separating non-investment-grade instruments built to absorb credit losses from the higher-quality investment aspects of the issue.

Redwood's investment focus puts it at the eye of the U.S. housing market hurricane. Delinquent payments on residential mortgages in the company's CES program rose from 0.96% to 1.25% in the past three months. While the company isn't securitizing any new jumbo mortgages for the time being, it is using its considerable cash flow to buy assets at bargain prices.

Management is sanguine on the company's long-term outlook, saying in the recent annual report that it viewed 2008 with caution as a year with "tremendous long-term earnings potential." Specifically, the company anticipates "extraordinary opportunities to make new investments" from falling asset prices and reduced competition in its market niche.

Clearly, the stock is risky. RWT could still be hurt if there is a further downturn in real estate that impacts higher-priced homes financed by jumbo loans. That would be particularly true if the downturn was sharp in California. Still, from a low of $24.07 in November, RWT rallied to over $40 as recently as April 1st.

Redwood Trust is not for the faint of heart. Still, with total annual returns of +15.6% for the past decade, the company is capable of excellent performance. The relatively sure yield and opportunity to buy the shares at a time of extreme market pessimism make this issue suitable for high-risk investors. We will continue to monitor RWT for a safer entry point for more conservative investors.

 

 

 

Good investing!


Carla Pasternak
Editor
High-Yield Investing
http://www.StreetAuthority.com

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