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This Blue Chip Stock Has a Great Dividend Track Record

By Carla Pasternak
Editor, High-Yield Investing
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View our subscription options for High-Yield Investing here.

Published:  December 15, 2008

AT&T (NYSE: T, $29.98) -- This leading U.S. telecommunications company is the largest provider of local and long distance services in the United States. It also operates AT&T Mobility, the dominant American wireless company, with approximately 75 million customers and nearly 30% market share. This blue-chip company is a member of numerous stock indices, including the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500.

T has a history of regular dividend increases. In 2006, it paid $1.33 yearly. This amount was hiked to $1.42 in 2007 and rose to $0.40 a quarter or an expected payout of $1.60 in 2008. The stock now yields approximately 5.3% ($1.60/$29.98). (Given the economic climate, it is likely the dividend will not rise in 2009.)

Many readers may remember AT&T as Ma Bell, the ultimate widows and orphans stock. This incarnation of the company was divided by court order in 1984 with T allowed to retain its long distance, research & development, and manufacturing services. A number of regional "baby Bells" were also created in that year. Over time, the baby Bells consolidated. SBC merged with the original AT&T in 2006 and retained the T symbol.

T now operates in 22 U.S. states. Most of its territory is in the deep South, New England and the Midwest, although it also has a strong presence in California and Nevada. T boasts 59 million local phone lines and 15 million high-speed Internet customers. The company is also the parent of Yellow Pages.com.

Thus far, T has weathered the economic downturn relatively well. In the third quarter of 2008, revenues were $31.3 billion, up about +3% from the comparable quarter in 2007. T saw a +15.4% growth in wireless revenue and added 2.4 iPhone 3G activations. IPhone users spend on average 1.6 times more than average subscribers. The company earned $0.55 per share versus $0.50 in 2007.

If the recession becomes severe enough, subscribers may of course part with their cherished cell phones or be more cautious in their use. However, the 27 analysts who cover the company see 2009 earnings per share rising marginally to $2.96 in 2009 from the $2.85 they project for 2008.

The lowest 2009 estimate among the 27 analysts is $2.77. It is worth noting that analysts' estimates have already come down substantially as they have factored in the economic slowdown. Roughly 90 days ago the 2009 consensus estimate was $3.31.

If T was to reach only the low end of this estimate, and keep its dividend steady at $1.60 it would be paying out a highly sustainable 57.8% of earnings ($1.60/$2.77). From this perspective the dividend seems secure.

Like most stocks, T is down dramatically from its 52-week high of $42.97. On a forward basis, the P/E is approximately 10 times, a reasonable multiple for a blue chip of this quality. In an economic recovery, the stock could have capital gains potential.

Action to Take --> T offers a yield of over 5% and a chance for capital gains. Much of the share price risk may already be factored in. The stock is suitable for somewhat aggressive investors. To lock in a minimum 6% yield, the shares should be bought no higher than $26.67. 

Good investing!
 
[http://www.streetauthority.com/includes/editor-profiles-hy.htm]


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