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In today's modern world, investors are armed with an abundance of tools designed to assist them with financial analysis and investment decisions. One such tool that often goes overlooked is the evaluation of insider trading patterns. By that, I'm referring not to stock trades made by unscrupulous people who attempt to exploit non-public information, but instead to legitimate transactions made by corporate executives, or insiders. What is Insider Trading? Because they tend to be completely immersed in their company's day-to-day operations, corporate insiders often have intimate first-hand knowledge of their firm's financial performance. As such, if many of these corporate insiders are buying large blocks of shares in their own company on the open market, then that could serve as a positive signal that they believe their stock is undervalued. Alternatively, if a large number of corporate insiders are selling their company's stock, then that could serve as a warning sign of potential trouble ahead. As a general rule, it's always best to know a company inside and out before becoming a part owner. A diligent investor should have a firm grasp on all aspects of a company's operations -- its customers, its suppliers, its competitive advantages, its potential weaknesses, etc. However, no matter how many hours of research you devote to the study of a particular company, the bottom line is that you are unlikely to truly understand a firm as well as its top executives. After all, these corporate insiders usually have access to a large amount of private sales data and are involved all aspects of the company's operations. Why Is Insider Trading
Important to Analyze? A host of market research has proven that insider trading patterns can indeed provide important clues about which direction a stock is headed in the coming months and years. A number of studies have demonstrated this by looking back at years of historical stock price data and discovering that upward price movements were often preceded by strong insider buying, and vice-versa. For example, a recent academic study demonstrated that stocks perform far better in the subsequent month after seeing a significant amount of insider buying. Are Insider Trading Patterns
Always Correct in Predicting Future Share Price Movements? Nevertheless, investors should put some credence in the behavior of a company's insiders, as their purchase and sale patterns have been shown to have strong predictive value. With that in mind, investors need to understand how to analyze insider activity. When Evaluating Insider Trades, You Should Pay Particular Attention to the Following Factors... Size of the purchase or
sale: It stands to reason that larger trades are placed with more confidence than smaller ones, and are therefore more revealing. If an executive is willing to invest a substantial amount of his/her annual salary in one large trade (or a series of trades), then this likely indicates greater optimism than a much smaller trade would imply. Market studies have confirmed the validity of this theory. However, this knowledge is only useful up to a certain point. Extremely large transactions are likely to garner media attention, and this can often have a dramatic impact on share prices. If price fluctuations already reflect the insider activity, then the potential benefit of that insider information is already likely to have been lost. Identity of the insider: Obviously, a company's officers will generally have a deeper understanding of their firm's future direction. Not only will they possess better and more detailed information than the general public, but they should also have a better ability to analyze and draw more accurate conclusions from that data. By contrast, insiders that are not employees of the firm (such as institutional owners) merely have access to the same data that is available to the public. This may explain why the buying patterns of these insiders are less powerful in predicting a stock's future direction, particularly when compared to the firm's officers. Studies have concluded that investors should scrutinize the trades made by a company's top executives and place less emphasis on trades placed by large shareholders. Size of the company: With this in mind, the insider trading activity at a micro-cap firm can be quite useful in predicting the future direction of both the company and its share price. As a rule, smaller firms with positive insider activity tend to generally outperform larger firms in the same situation. Consensus among insiders: Sometimes, the lack of insider trading can be a positive sign in and of itself. In many cases, corporate executives already hold a sizeable stake in their company and will refrain from purchasing additional shares even if they have a very upbeat outlook. In these cases, a lack of corporate insider sales can be viewed as positive, particularly when it comes to a stock that has risen dramatically in price. Putting it all Together: -- Stocks often perform better
following a month of insider buying. When all of these factors are carefully considered, insider trading activity can provide a window for investors to view how bullish a company's top managers are. However, even if you and the inner circle both reach the same conclusion, it may still take a while for all the pieces to fall in place. In the interim, the stock may suffer through a sharp decline. Throughout my career, some of my most profitable investments did not materialize until after I had taken a second or third position in a stock (in some cases after it had dropped significantly from my original entry point). On that note, if you find a company attractive at a certain level, then it should only look better after a 30% drop -- assuming, of course, there have been no significant changes in the firm's underlying fundamentals and insiders have kept from selling. In that case, it may make sense to add to your original position, thereby reducing your cost basis and increasing your chances of earning a spectacular return. Remember, nearly all inexpensive stocks have problems in one area or another; otherwise why on earth would they be cheap? Companies that are firing on all cylinders rarely trade at substantial discounts. Given this kind of contrarian approach, value investors should be prepared for a volatile ride. They should also be ready to take advantage of difficult market conditions, as erratic stock prices can often provide them with additional buying opportunities. Every company has some intrinsic value -- even the ones that are executing poorly. The point is not to identify perfect companies, but instead to find the ones where a firm's share price has dropped significantly below its intrinsic value. This disconnect between value and price is what creates meaningful, above-average profit potential. True value investing is not for the faint of heart, nor is it appropriate for those who seek immediate rewards. Let me share a quick personal story that illustrates the importance of being patient. Eighteen months ago, I purchased a classically cheap stock in a boring and troubled industry. The company, which competes in the declining, highly competitive global apparel industry, was struggling with a lack of customer diversity and was also facing a potential de-listing from the Nasdaq. As I stated earlier, however, even poorly performing companies can offer compelling value if the price is right -- and this one was a perfect example. The company was a little known firm called Cygne Designs (CYDS.OB, $4.14), which I bought for the rock-bottom price of $0.23. Over the next year, the company's shares went essentially nowhere, even as other micro-cap stocks skyrocketed. Watching other stocks soar while mine remained overlooked was a frustrating experience. However, I ultimately tempered my emotion with a good dose of patience and learned the importance of portfolio diversification and sound money management. CYDS was a classic Graham and Dodd investment, as the company was selling below its break-up value. The stock was ignored and unloved, but I was not about to give up. Finally, the rest of the market saw the same intrinsic value that I did, and as of Friday's closing price the shares had climbed more than 17-fold to reach $4.14. It may take considerable time for a company's true value to be unlocked, during which time you may feel a little foolish. Above all, though, value investors must trust their instincts and be patient. Wait until a stock reaches its fair value before you sell, and along the way be sure to practice good money management techniques. The behavior of irrational investors is often what causes stocks to become undervalued in the short term. Exploit their mistakes, and never let misplaced emotion impact your own bottom-line results.
John DiStanislao P.S. -- To receive
in-depth guidance on today's leading micro-cap opportunities every
single weekend, please subscribe to John DiStanislao's premium
investment newsletter -- Undiscovered
Micro-Cap Gems.
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