| Companies
That Are Just Turning the Corner to Profitability |
Published: May 10, 2004
Back in 1995, Yahoo Inc. (YHOO) was a struggling
dot-com startup with just $1.4 million in annual revenues. At that point
in time, the vast majority of Americans were still unfamiliar with the
Internet. In addition, most investors were skeptical about whether any
pure-play dot-com firm would ever manage to earn a profit. Because of
this, the risks associated with an investment in Yahoo, as well as most
other Internet-related firms, were extremely high. Wall Street had yet
to catch on to the company's long-term potential, and not surprisingly,
the stock languished in the roughly $2-3 range (on a split-adjusted
basis) throughout much of the mid-1990s.
Behind the scenes, however, Yahoo's management team
was working hard to build the firm's presence in the booming online
market. And as the firm's revenue base and the online advertising
industry continued to grow in the subsequent years, it eventually moved
toward profitability. By the time 1998 rolled around, Yahoo had figured
out a way to earn steady profits. Not surprisingly, investor interest in
the company exploded and the firm's stock price followed suit.
Here's a look at what happened to Yahoo's share price
as the firm moved toward profitability in the late 1990s:

The table below clearly demonstrates how Wall Street
responded as Yahoo began to post steady profits. Note how the stock
started its meteoric rise at roughly the same time the firm began to
deliver solid net income:
| Year |
Net
Income ($ millions) |
Year-End
Stock Price |
| 1995 |
-$0.6M |
N/A |
| 1996 |
-$2.3M |
$1.42 |
| 1997 |
-$22.9M |
$8.66 |
| 1998 |
+$25.6M |
$59.24 |
| 1999 |
+$61.1M |
$216.35 |
If you've been investing for quite awhile, then this
pattern probably isn't new to you. After all, we could come up with
literally hundreds of additional examples of stocks that have followed
the exact same path. Just think of all of the tremendous success stories
we've seen in recent years with companies such as Genentech (DNA --
reached steady profits in 2003), Panera (PNRA -- 2000), and Amazon.com
(AMZN -- 2003), among others.
The bottom line is that most investors wait until a
firm reaches profitability before they place their hard-earned money
into the company's stock. Because of this, stocks tend to post their
most dramatic upswings as the underlying company moves from the red into
the black.
With the above analysis as a backdrop, in a recent Market
Advisor issue my staff and I decided to go "inside the
numbers" in search of companies that have just turned the corner to
profitability. Such firms often see a huge surge in buying interest in
their stocks as they finally start to deliver real earnings. With that
tremendous potential in mind, we recently searched through our universe
of 10,000 stocks to find companies that met the following criteria:
1. Net income of less than zero (in other words,
a net loss) in each of the past three fiscal years
2. Positive net income and positive cash flow in the trailing
12-month period
3. Revenue growth of greater than +30% in the most recent one- and
three-year periods
4. 12-month share price return of greater than +30%
My goal was to come up with a list of firms that have
posted a net loss in each of the last three years, but have now turned
the corner to profitability. In addition, I looked for firms with
positive cash flow, strong revenue growth and a solid share price
performance in the most recent 12-month period. After running this data
through StreetAuthority's advanced scanning software, I came up with the
following list of companies:
| Company
(Symbol) |
Price |
Mkt
Cap |
Industry |
| Altiris (ATRS) |
$23.85 |
625M |
Software |
| Caraco
Pharma. (CPD) |
11.20 |
275M |
Drugs |
| Dawson Geo. (DWSN) |
14.26 |
80M |
Oil
& Gas Services |
| Digital
Insight (DGIN) |
18.20 |
640M |
Business/Online
Services |
| Digital River (DRIV) |
28.41 |
900M |
Business/Online
Services |
| Interstate
Hotels (IHR) |
5.12 |
155M |
Hotels |
| Inveresk Research
(IRGI) |
29.06 |
1.1B |
Biotechnology |
| Kyphon
(KYPH) |
23.60 |
945M |
Manufacturing |
| Marvell Tech. (MRVL) |
39.72 |
5.3B |
Semiconductors |
| Netflix
(NFLX) |
30.74 |
1.6B |
Special
Retail |
| Online Resources (ORCC) |
6.75 |
120M |
Computer
Services |
| Sohu.com
(SOHU) |
16.95 |
615M |
Business/Online
Services |
| SupportSoft (SPRT) |
9.40 |
395M |
Software
& Programming |
| ValueClick
(VCLK) |
9.80 |
765M |
Business/Online
Services |
After having my research staff take a closer
fundamental look at each of the above firms, we came to the conclusion
that Altiris (ATRS), Caraco Pharmaceuticals (CPD), Dawson Geophysical
(DWSN) and Sohu.com (SOHU) are all worth a closer look. As always,
however, please make sure to do your own due diligence on each of these
firms to decide if they are right for your portfolio. Any and all final
investing decisions for your own account are entirely up to you.
|
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