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Searching for Value in Online Travel Stocks  

By Paul Tracy
Editor, StreetAuthority Market Advisor
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Published:  March 6, 2006

Just fifteen years ago, booking a flight and hotel was often an expensive and laborious process. Finding a good deal on a hotel meant calling several major hotel chains and asking for a rate quote over the telephone. And booking a flight likely involved calling multiple airlines to find the most direct flights, cheapest travel dates and best fare deals. For international travel, language barriers made booking a relatively simple trip even more difficult.

Alternatively, travelers could hire a specialized travel agent to do all the legwork for them. Often travel agents could find better deals and more appropriate accommodations, but they also charged a significant commission -- as much as 1% to 5% of the cost of the trip itself. These high costs and inefficiencies were par for the course in the travel industry, where little had changed in the five decades leading up to 1990.

Enter the Internet. Nowadays, consumers can click on two or three websites and find literally thousands of hotel, car rental and flight combinations within minutes. Smaller independent hotels that were previously unknown to most consumers now get as much exposure as the big chains on a variety of travel websites. And booking commissions are normally less than $10 per trip -- a tiny fraction of the commissions that prevailed just over a decade ago.

Growing Market Share
Convenient and cost-effective, it should come as little surprise that the online travel industry has been on a tear in recent years. According to Internet research firm Jupiter Research, online travel sales will account for around 25% of all bookings in 2006 -- up from less than 15% just three years ago. By 2009, roughly one-third of all U.S. travel revenues will be handled via the Internet. As you can see in my chart, Internet travel will become increasingly important over the next few years.

Overseas Opportunities
But the U.S. is just the proverbial drop in the bucket. Globally, online travel sales are growing even faster.

In Europe, consumers typically have at least 4 weeks of vacation time annually compared to just 1 or 2 weeks for the average American; that spells multiple trips booked every year. And online commerce and Internet penetration in Europe stills lags the U.S. It should come as no surprise then that online travel growth rates remain far higher overseas.

And then there's Asia. Fifteen years ago, few consumers in India and China could afford to travel outside their home nations. But thanks to a rising middle-class consumer, Asians are increasingly traveling both domestically and abroad. In fact, according to the China Daily newspaper, international travel has grown more than 50-fold in the past two decades.

Growth opportunities also abound in India. Up until the mid-1990s, air travel in India was dominated by state-owned airlines; ticket prices were prohibitively high. But after liberalization a decade ago, increased competition has resulted in lower fares and faster growth. As a result, air travel abroad has been growing at a nearly +50% clip in India in recent years.

According to travel industry research firm PhoCusWright, U.S. online travel bookings grew about +19% in 2005 over 2004 levels. But internationally, online travel bookings grew by nearly +120% -- more than 5 times the rate seen in the U.S.

Fat Profit Margins
Rapid growth in the online travel business has helped fuel impressive sales gains for a handful of online travel companies. But that's only half the story -- online travel websites are also far more profitable than traditional offline travel agency operations. The reason is simple: scalability. Specifically, when a traditional travel agency wishes to expand, it has to hire more agents. Meanwhile, expanding abroad requires setting up a local office with agents speaking the local language, and that type of infrastructure can get expensive.

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But in the online world, once a website is designed and set up, it can handle a tremendous number of users. Growth in sales does not necessarily require commensurate growth in the labor force -- a handful of website designers and technicians can maintain the site regardless of the number of customers served. This scalability is behind the fat profit margins enjoyed by online travel firms.

Market Leaders Remain in Charge
A handful of U.S.-based online travel firms were first movers in the online travel industry. These companies not only dominate the U.S. market, but they've also leveraged their size and existing infrastructure to expand internationally. As a result, these American players also dominate many fast-growing foreign markets.

While AOL and Yahoo, among others, are now entering the online travel space, they're at a significant disadvantage. Specifically, several highly popular online travel sites already have an established brand name and customer base in online travel -- consumers tend to be loyal to established brands both on and offline. Furthermore, existing websites have deals with literally tens of thousands of independent hotels and airlines all over the world, allowing them to offer wider selection and choice for consumers. It takes time to build up that sort of network.

With these points in mind, in the table below, I present a list of some of the best-positioned online travel companies. And in the text that follows, I examine two of my favorite firms in this industry . . .

Editor's Note:  Throughout the remainder of this article, StreetAuthority.com founder Paul Tracy and his staff provide a closer look at several of today's leading online travel stocks and issue a host of predictions on their future prospects. To view the remainder of this article, you'll need to subscribe to our premium Market Advisor newsletter. Please visit one of the following links to continue...


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Good investing!




-- Paul Tracy
Editor
StreetAuthority Market Advisor

To receive in-depth guidance on today's leading investing opportunities each month, plus access to five model portfolios, please subscribe to Paul Tracy's premium investment newsletter -- the StreetAuthority Market Advisor.

Paul Tracy founded StreetAuthority and became Chief Investment Strategist in 2001. Prior to that he spent several years as Managing Editor at a multi-million dollar financial publishing firm with over 150,000 subscribers. In addition to his role as managing editor and lead financial writer, he was also responsible for equity research and managing a team of seasoned professional financial writers, researchers and market commentators.

Paul's previous experience includes a position at Robert W. Baird & Co.'s full-service brokerage operations as well as economic research work on a Money and Banking project funded by the National Bureau of Economic Research. He has also spent time doing outside consulting and research for the University of Virginia, has appeared as a guest expert on several prominent financial radio shows, and has been a featured speaker at various investment conferences across the U.S.

Paul graduated with a B.S. in Finance and Management from the McIntire School of Commerce at the University of Virginia.


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