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Over the course of time, every great product and industry eventually reaches a tipping point -- the point when a product's addressable market becomes large enough to make it profitable. Once a product reaches this point, a growth surge of tremendous proportions awaits those companies involved in the industry. Investors who can recognize that key moment stand to earn some of the richest returns the stock market has to offer. Consider the automobile. Cars powered by engines of one form or another have been in existence since at least the 17th century. But for nearly two centuries, few consumers ever rode in or even saw a car -- tinkering with these machines was the province of hobbyists and engineers. Horse-drawn vehicles and later steam-powered locomotives were still far and away the most common modes of transportation. But something changed in 1908. A 45-year old machinist named Henry Ford introduced the Model T -- a mass-produced car with a price tag that put it within reach of hundreds of thousands of consumers. That year marked the tipping point for the automobile -- the magical moment when this key technology moved out of the inventor's workshop and into the mainstream. Within a few years, automobiles represented one of the largest and fastest-growing markets in the world. By 1960 there were 87 million drivers in the U.S., and Ford (F) and General Motors (GM) were two of the largest companies in the world. Investors who recognized that key tipping point early enough made truly gigantic returns on their investments. And tipping points aren't just a feature of industrial products -- more modern examples abound. In the 1970s few consumers had ever seen -- let alone interacted with -- a computer. But in 1981, IBM introduced the personal computer, a machine small and inexpensive enough to be practical for millions of consumers. In 1983, Time magazine even named the PC its "Person of the Year." Investors who identified the PC's tipping point and invested in stocks like Microsoft (MSFT), IBM (IBM), and Apple (AAPL) in the 1980s were richly rewarded as the PC moved into just about every home and office in the U.S. The same can be said of investors who identified the tipping point for cable television in the 1950s, or for networking technologies and the Internet in the 1990s. Of course, cars, televisions, and even PCs are now well past their tipping points. All of these technologies are mature and commonplace in most developed countries around the world. The addressable market is huge but already saturated; growth rates have slowed.
But this is only the beginning -- the industry has been growing at a rate of roughly +100% annually, and that type of above-average growth should continue for many years to come. There are more than 200 million drivers in the U.S. and as many as 1 billion worldwide. Most of these drivers are currently listening to traditional broadcast radio, but all are potential satellite radio listeners. If you add in the potential customers who would use satellite radio at work or at home, then there is a truly enormous addressable market for the industry. And there are good reasons to expect an acceleration of consumer adoption of the technology. The most obvious is that it's simply a superior product. In most major U.S. markets, consumers currently have a choice of 15 to 20 broadcast radio stations. Smaller cities typically have fewer stations than that, and in some rural areas you can't even dial in a single clear station. Moreover, if you drive outside your home market, then you'll have to spend time searching for a new station. But the nation's two satellite radio companies offer well over 100 channels each -- more than five times the selection of any of the biggest U.S. broadcast markets. These stations include radio broadcasts of popular TV stations, as well as channels dedicated to just about every type of music, political talk, or news. Even well-known broadcast radio personalities such as Howard Stern and Opie and Anthony are moving exclusively into the satellite broadcast world. Such prominent radio personalities have millions of listeners, and many are following them by buying satellite radio receivers. Better still, satellite transmissions are coast-to-coast, so the signal is crystal clear no matter how far you drive away from your home market. This potential is not lost on the big auto manufacturers. In 2001, no car models contained factory-installed satellite radio receivers. But by the end of last year, almost every make and model of vehicle sold in the U.S. was available with satellite radio as an option. To sign up for the service, new car buyers just need to ask for it when purchasing the car. They'll also have to agree to a monthly fee of around $12. This easy availability and low cost is behind the rapid acceleration in subscriber growth over the past few years. In the not-too-distant future, satellite radios could even become standard equipment in some car models. Furthermore, satellite radio is currently available in small boom-box style radios and portable devices the size of iPods. Simply put, satellite radio is becoming ubiquitous. In fact, growth for the industry has continued despite a sizeable increase in monthly subscription fees by both Sirius and XM Satellite Radio (the two players in the satellite radio industry) since 2003. Bottom line: satellite radio operators could maintain growth of at least +40% to +50% annually for the foreseeable future. At that growth rate, the satellite radio industry could easily boast more than 40 million customers by the end of 2010. Only two satellite radio companies are currently authorized to broadcast in the U.S. -- XM Satellite Radio (XMSR) and Sirius (SIRI). That's not likely to change soon; it's extremely expensive and time consuming to launch satellites, forming a huge barrier to entry for new competitors. Moreover, it's unlikely the government would authorize a third provider with the industry still early in its growth phase. With all of these factors in mind, satellite radio stocks have a great deal of long-term potential. But are they worth the risk? In the analysis below, we'll take a closer look at shares of both XM Satellite Radio and Sirius Satellite Radio . . . Editor's Note: Throughout the remainder of this article, StreetAuthority.com founder Paul Tracy and his staff provide an in-depth analysis of the nation's two satellite radio providers -- XM and Sirius. To view the remainder of this article, you'll need to subscribe to our premium Market Advisor newsletter. Please visit one of the following links to continue . . . Good investing!
Paul Tracy founded StreetAuthority and became Chief Investment Strategist in 2001. Prior to that he spent several years as Managing Editor at a multi-million dollar financial publishing firm with over 150,000 subscribers. In addition to his role as managing editor and lead financial writer, he was also responsible for equity research and managing a team of seasoned professional financial writers, researchers and market commentators. Paul's previous experience includes a position at Robert W. Baird & Co.'s full-service brokerage operations as well as economic research work on a Money and Banking project funded by the National Bureau of Economic Research. He has also spent time doing outside consulting and research for the University of Virginia, has appeared as a guest expert on several prominent financial radio shows, and has been a featured speaker at various investment conferences across the U.S. Paul graduated with a B.S.
in Finance and Management from the McIntire School of Commerce at the
University of Virginia.
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But
there's a new technology that's just now nearing its tipping point --
satellite radio. Like autos in the 1900s or PCs in the 1970s, few
consumers had heard of this exciting product five years ago. In fact,
2001 marked the first year commercial satellite radio broadcasts became
available in the U.S. But as you can see in our chart, at the end of
last year, less than five years after that first broadcast, there were
already nearly 12 million satellite radio subscribers in the U.S. alone.
And satellite radio has already been introduced in Canada -- Europe and
Asia aren't far behind.
