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High-Yield
Investing.
John D. Rockefeller once
quipped that the only thing that gave him pleasure was to see his dividend
coming in. The famous oil tycoon made that statement in the early 20th
century, and for some investors during the tech boom of the late 1990s, it
may well have seemed a hopelessly anachronistic sentiment.
After all, with the new millennium fast approaching in 1999, the average
dividend yield on the S&P 500 had sunk to a multi-decade low below 1.2%.
Meanwhile, the yield offered by the industry titans of the Dow Jones
Industrial Average had sunk to just 1.6%, less than half the 3.4% rate
dished out ten years earlier. At that point in time, no one seemed to care
about a 1% or 2% yield when the market was rallying +15-20% annually and
offering capital gains galore.
However, the frothy bull market of the 1990s was a statistical anomaly, as
dividends have historically formed a key component of stock market returns
over the long haul. In fact, between 1926 and 2005 the S&P 500 delivered
total returns of +10.5% per year. Capital appreciation alone accounted for
just +6.1% annually, or 58% of the total gains. The remaining 42% of the
market's total return came in the form of dividend payments. This is a much
larger percentage than most investors realize!
In part, the decline of dividends can be attributed to their high taxation,
as payments were usually taxed heavily at both the corporate and personal
level. However, favorable tax legislation was enacted in 2003. This
effectively reduced the personal tax on dividends from as high as 38.6% (the
top marginal tax bracket in 2003) to just 15%. Dividends suddenly became a
much more efficient way to increase shareholder value. As a result, many
companies decided to either increase their payouts or to initiate dividends
for the first time, suddenly reversing a 20-year slide in the number of S&P
dividend-paying firms.
In fact, according to the Cato Institute, total aggregate dividend payments
shelled out by S&P 500 members jumped +18% to $172 billion in the 12 months
following the new law. That staggering total has swelled in years since,
coming in at $247 billion in 2007. And turning our attention to the broader
markets, 1,745 companies announced dividend increases in 2004, the first
full year after the change in tax legislation. Clearly, dividends are back
in favor with both corporate executives and investors.
The Importance of Compounding
The dividend payments generated by a modest investment might seem to be
inconsequential initially, but through the magic of compounding it won't
take long before they can begin to make a dramatic impact on your portfolio.
After all, these dividends can
be used to purchase more shares, leading to even larger dividend checks.
These larger checks can then be used to buy even more shares and so on. In
time, even a small stake in such stocks can grow into a tidy sum.
For example, suppose an investor buys 1,000 shares of stock in XYZ Corp. at
a purchase price of $10 per share (for an initial investment of $10,000).
Next, let's assume that XYZ pays a steady annual dividend of 10%, and the
shares rise at an +8% annual rate going forward.
The very first quarterly dividend check would be worth just $250: (($10,000
* 0.1)/4). While that amount will certainly not go very far on its own, it
is enough to purchase around 25 more shares at the initial $10 per share
price. Of course, those 25 shares would then generate dividend payments of
their own. As the chart below shows, this steady compounding process can
yield amazing results over the long haul.
After 30 years, the initial
1,000 share stake in XYZ would have grown to 17,449 shares! At the same
time, assuming a conservative +8% compounded annual growth rate, those
shares would have soared from $10 to more than $100. As a result, the
beginning $10,000 investment would have swelled to more than $1.7 million
dollars, without ever adding another penny!
But what would have happened if the investor just pocketed those dividend
payments year after year? Well, the stock would still be worth about $100
after 30 years, but without any reinvestment he or she would only be left
with the same 1,000 shares, for a total of approximately $100,000. Even when
the cumulative dividends paid of $122,346 are included, the entire
investment would still only have grown to around $223,000, which is more
than $1.5 million less than with dividends reinvested.
It's also worth pointing out that at the end of the 30-year period, the
first portfolio would be generating annual dividend payments in excess of
$170,000 ($1.7 M * 0.1). In other words, the investor's annual dividend
income alone would amount to more than 17 times his or her initial $10,000
outlay!
Income Stocks Offer More than
Just Solid Dividends
You might ask why should an investor bother buying high-income stocks
just to earn a few extra percentage points of return when the bond market
offers a safer yield? Well, the answer is deceptively simple. Stock returns
are really the product of two elements: dividends and capital gains.
Both bonds and income-oriented stocks can offer attractive yields. However,
unlike their fixed-income counterparts, most dividend paying securities also
offer decent capital appreciation prospects over time. That means investors
are able to not only earn stellar dividend yields, but they can also realize
additional gains from rising share prices. Bonds simply cannot match that
upside potential. Furthermore, bonds are much more susceptible to interest
rate fluctuations, as rising rates can quickly erode the value of their
fixed interest payments.
Income Investing is Now Back in
Vogue
After more than a decade of playing second fiddle to capital gains,
dividends are back in style. History shows that periods of abnormally large
stock market gains are typically followed by extended periods of
below-average returns. For example, the huge bull run in the Dow Industrials
from the late 1940s to the mid-1960s gave way to a flat market from 1965 to
1980. Over this period, the Dow actually returned less than +1% annually
(excluding dividends). This same pattern held true after the 1920s bull run
and was also seen in the Japanese Nikkei after its huge advance during the
1980s. After the big run-up we've seen in the past few years, and the
subsequent subprime crisis and general economic uncertainty afterwards, we
could in for an extended period of uninspiring trading action.
One effective way to make money in a flat (or even declining) market is to
collect dividends. In the slow growth decade of the 1970s, dividends
accounted for nearly 80% of the market's total returns (as opposed to 10%
during the 1990s). This strategy holds true because companies that pay
dividends tend to have more reliable, stable businesses that hold up better
during challenging economic conditions.
After all, to pay dividends over a prolonged period of time, a company must
be able to generate dependable earnings. These are exactly the sort of
companies that investors turn to for shelter in troubled times.
Each of the securities we'll profile in today's report features yields of
10% or higher -- that is far better than the rates offered by competing
money market accounts, CDs, government bonds, or any other typical income
securities.
(1.)
What to Look for in a Solid Dividend-Paying Security
While it might be tempting to
invest exclusively in the market's highest-yielding securities, this
shortcut approach usually leads to mediocre returns. To begin,
off-the-charts dividend yields are typically the result of very depressed
share prices. In many cases, the companies that offer such high yields are
in poor financial shape.
In addition, poorly performing companies often see their share prices
decline even further, leading to dismal overall returns. Remember that
income stocks offer returns from two sources: dividends and capital gains
(or losses). With this in mind, although you can hold a stock that offers an
exceptional 15% dividend yield, if the underlying shares lose -20%, then
your investment will end up losing money.
Furthermore, most dividends
are by no means guaranteed. Companies can reduce their dividend payouts (or
eliminate them altogether) whenever they like. As such, a fat dividend yield
alone does not guarantee investment success.
With this in mind, we prefer to focus our research on those securities with
a proven ability to not only pay dividends year after year, but also to
increase their payouts. We also examine a number of other factors to ensure
that our investment ideas are fundamentally sound, and look for securities
with the best total return potential.
In an effort to determine whether a particular firm can be counted on to pay
a sizable dividend plus deliver steady capital appreciation in the coming
years, we've established a list of important investing criteria. Before
investing in any dividend-paying stock, we carefully evaluate each of the
following fundamental factors:
Yield
-- A dividend yield indicates the annual return that a security delivers in
the form of dividend payments. The yield can be calculated by simply
dividing the annual dividend payment per share by the security's current
stock price. For instance, let's assume XYZ Corp. is currently offering
quarterly dividend payments of $0.50 per share for a total annual
distribution of $2.00. Let's also assume XYZ stock is currently trading at a
price of $50 per share. In this case, Company XYZ offers an annual dividend
yield of 4% ($2.00/$50.00). In an effort to hone in on companies with the
most impressive dividend yields, today's report focuses exclusively on
securities with yields of 10% or more.
Payout Ratio
-- Although we want to earn high returns on our investments, we're also
careful to watch for too much of a good thing. A company's dividend payout
ratio indicates the percentage of a firm's earnings that management is
paying out to shareholders. The payout ratio can be calculated by dividing a
stock's annual dividend payment by its annual earnings per share.
The average payout ratio for a component of the S&P 500 Index is around 30%.
However, this figure varies greatly from industry to industry. Many
high-tech sectors, for example, retain nearly all of their earnings to
deploy back in the business. They therefore have very low (or zero) payout
ratios. On the other hand, mature, slower-growing industries, such as
utilities or banks, often boast payout ratios as high as 70% or more.
Meanwhile, real estate investment trusts (REITs) maintain even larger payout
ratios, as they are required by law to return 90% of their earnings to
shareholders in the form of dividends. And finally, some companies pay out
more than 100% of their earnings to shareholders. In general, we prefer to
avoid such firms, as those types of payout ratios almost always prove
unsustainable over the long haul.
As a rule of thumb, we generally look for securities with dividend payout
ratios below 80%. However, there are certain exceptions to this rule. For
example, the payout ratios of securities such as master limited
partnerships, Canadian income trusts and shipping firms can seem deceptively
high if they are based on earnings instead of available cash flow. That's
because these companies typically have very high non-cash depreciation
expenses, which reduce earnings but don't affect the cash flow available to
shareholders.
Reliability
-- Companies are under no legal obligation to continue paying dividends.
Therefore, we want to find those that we can count on to maintain and
hopefully even increase their quarterly dividend payments. We usually look
for companies that have paid consistent dividends for several years. Also,
we look for firms with strong track records of increasing those dividend
payments. A lengthy history of stable (or rising) dividend payments is often
convincing evidence of a company's commitment to its shareholders.
Total Return
-- Although dividends are certainly an important part of the picture, they
don't represent the whole story. In the end, the total return that a stock
delivers is a combination of its dividend yield and capital appreciation. A
stock may pay a decent annual dividend, but if its share price declines year
after year, then the net effect could be a flat, or possibly even a
money-losing investment. Although income investors are typically willing to
trade capital gains for the relative safety of predictable income, we prefer
to look for stocks that offer the best of both worlds -- rich dividend
payments and solid long-term growth potential.
Taxes -- Income
investors should always be mindful of the after-tax rate of return they earn
on any investment. A stock may pay a solid dividend, and its shares may
outperform the market, but if those gains are taxed at a stiff rate, then
this may neutralize them. As mentioned earlier, several years ago the tax
rate imposed on most dividend distributions was reduced to 15%. One notable
exception, however, are real estate investment trusts (REITs). Their
distributions are still taxed as ordinary income at rates as high as 35%.
On the other hand, despite the higher tax rate, many REITs still generate
after-tax returns that are far superior to other income stocks. Therefore,
investors may want to consider shielding REIT dividends and other
unqualified dividends by placing those stocks in qualified, tax-advantaged
accounts, such as IRAs.
With all this in mind, our research staff thoroughly analyzed the universe
of securities with 10%+ yields. We'll devote the
remainder of this report to a closer look at their favorite double-digit
yielding
investment ideas.
(2.)
Frontline (NYSE: FRO)
Snapshot:
Frontline leases crude oil
transport ships to companies all over the world. The company owns and
charters a fleet of 20 mid-sized Suezmax carriers, which are designed for
shorter journeys, and 42 Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCC), which are used to
transport crude over long distances. The company also charters eight
oil/bulk/ore (OBO) carriers.
| Like most tanker
firms, FRO leases its ships under a combination of spot and time
charter contracts. Time charter contracts are longer-term contracts
at a fixed day rate -- often charters can be one to five years in
duration. Spot rates are short-term agreements cut at the prevailing
market day rate at the time of contracting. Spot contracts offer
more upside potential. Meanwhile, time charters offer more stable,
predictable rates. The advantage of FRO's balanced contract
portfolio is that its spot rate contracts allow it to benefit
handsomely during strong tanker markets, while its time charters
offer a measure of stability during weak periods. |
|
Frontline (NYSE: FRO) |
Business:
Leasing crude oil carriers with both spot and time charter contracts
Annual Payment: $8.25
Yield: 28.5%
Frequency: Quarterly |
|
Tanker rates are determined by two main factors: the supply of tankers and
demand for crude oil shipping. Demand for shipping has been growing rapidly in
recent years as countries like China and India import greater quantities of oil.
It is estimated that the United States is responsible for one quarter of annual
oil consumption worldwide. China only uses one-third of what the U.S. uses, but
it is expected to be consuming at present day U.S. levels in the next few
decades. Of course, this means more oil imports, which increases demand for
Frontline's tankers.
On the supply front, although new tankers are being built, this new supply is
being partly offset by the phase-out of older, single-hull tankers. Single-hull
tankers are more prone to spills, and thanks to recent international agreements,
all single-hull ships will be phased out over the next few years. Many major
energy producers have already decided to lease only double-hull ships -- well
ahead of international deadlines. This bodes well for Frontline, whose fleet is
already made up mostly of double-hulled tankers.
Dividends: As a fallout of the credit
crisis, Frontline temporarily lowered its dividend in December 2008 as a means
to preserve capital. Even so, based on the total trailing
twelve month dividends of $8.25 per share, the stock carries
a yield of roughly 28.5%, making it a compelling choice for aggressive-minded
income investors. With shipping rates at current levels, FRO is cash flow positive
on the operating side. And as rates continue to strengthen, FRO's cash flow generation allows FRO to pay its
impressive dividends. As long as demand for crude remains high and the supply of
transport vessels low, this firm should benefit and continue offering an
attractive dividend.
Outlook: While tanker rates are volatile and seasonal, strong
long-term demand should spell a rebound in rates. And with the continuing phase-out of
single-hulled tankers and sustained demand for energy from emerging markets,
these rates look to increase further -- benefiting Frontline for years to come.
Furthermore, FRO carries a forward P/E ratio of under 12, making its valuation attractive as
well.
|
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(3.)
Macquarie/First Trust Global Infrastructure/Utilities Dividend & Income Fund (NYSE: MFD)
Snapshot: This closed-end fund focuses on dividend-paying
stocks based both in the U.S. and overseas. A majority of the fund's
holdings are involved in the utility industry, including stocks and bonds of
companies providing electricity, water, and wastewater services. The fund is
also heavy in natural gas and oil pipeline plays -- another sector that
tends to offer high yields for investors.
|
MFD's portfolio typically consists of about 70% stocks and 30% corporate bonds. In addition, the fund holds
a majority of its portfolio in international securities.
The utility stocks MFD invests in are stable income-paying securities. Demand for basic services such as electricity and water is steady and predictable. After all, there's a reason the utility industry is often called the
"essential services" industry -- because most consumers
can't live without these utilities, demand remains steady throughout good
times and bad. |
|
Macquarie Infra./Util.
Fund (NYSE: MFD) |
|
Business:
Invests in utility and infrastructure securities around the world
Annual Payment: $1.70
Yield: 18.0%
Frequency: Quarterly |
|
And because they often operate
as monopolies, the utility industry is heavily regulated by the government
both in the U.S. and overseas. In most cases, the government sets the rates
utility companies can charge their customers. These rates are designed to
enable the utilities to earn a fair rate of return on their assets without
allowing them to abuse their position in the market.
The end result of strong demand for utility services coupled with government
regulated prices is a highly defensive sector with slow growth but strong,
steady cash flows. Better still, those predictable cash flows are what
enable the best-run utilities to pay consistent dividends to their
shareholders.
Dividends: Over the past four quarters, the fund has
paid out $1.70 per share in regular dividends, giving it a
handsome yield of 18%. Meanwhile, the regular quarterly dividend has
surged a remarkable +42% since MFD first launched in 2004 to its current
$0.425 per share. Driven in no small part by its growing dividend, MFD has
produced average annual returns of more than +16% in its first four full years of
operation.
Outlook: With
major holdings like Italy's largest electric and natural gas utility firm,
Enel, as well as British water and power utility giant United Utilities, MFD
holds a strong portfolio of securities with consistent cash flows. That
should enable investors in the fund to see steadily growing dividends and
consistent share price appreciation in the coming years.
(4.)
Capstead Mortgage Preferred B (NYSE: CMO-PB)
Snapshot: As you may be able to tell by the hyphenated CMO-PB
ticker symbol, this particular selection represents the preferred shares of
Capstead Mortgage (NYSE: CMO), a real estate investment trust (REIT) that
invests primarily in pools of mortgage loans. When investing in mortgage
REITs, the biggest dividend payouts with the lowest risk are typically not
found in common stocks, but in preferred shares. Preferred shares trade
daily on stock exchanges just like common stock, but they also have the
fixed income characteristics of a bond.
The good
news for investors is that CMO-PB is one of the most attractive of
the bunch. Despite recent turmoil in the subprime mortgage market,
Capstead Mortgage has remained remarkably resilient.
That's because this Dallas-based REIT invests mainly in
single-family, adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs) issued and
guaranteed by government-sponsored agencies like Fannie Mae (NYSE:
FNM) and Ginnie Mae. These so-called "agency" securities carry an
implied "AAA" rating, meaning they carry virtually no credit risk. |
|
Capstead Mortgage Pref. B (NYSE: CMO-PB) |
Business:
Invests primarily in single-family adjustable rate mortgages
issued by large lenders such as Fannie Mae
Annual Payment: $1.44
Yield: 10.0%
Frequency: Quarterly |
|
Any concerns investors had with Capstead's holdings evaporated when
Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson announced the government was taking
over mortgage giants Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae.
Now, Fannie and Freddie are in a federal conservatorship.
The two entities are doing business and have access to capital from Uncle
Sam's coffers and the backing of the federal government. So-called "agency"
debt like Fannie and Freddie has always been highly rated, but Paulson's
intervention calmed everyone's fears.
As a result, the securities Capstead invests in now have the explicit
backing of the federal government. This is obviously good news for CMO-PB
investors as it means the underlying portfolio is as secure as possible.
Dividends: Over the last five years, shareholders have
received steady monthly dividends of $0.105 per share. Even without the
impact of capital appreciation, the shares' 10% dividend might be enough to
top the performance of the major averages over the next few years.
For investors seeking both dividends and capital gains, this particular
preferred stock may be what they are looking for. While most preferred
shares tend to trade in a relatively stable range (compared to the common
shares) and have limited upside potential, CMO-PB is a convertible
preferred. This means investors have the option of converting their
preferred shares into Capstead's common stock. Therefore, shareholders are
free to keep collecting the dividend checks as long as they choose, but also
have the privilege of participating in the upside capital appreciation
potential of the underlying common stock.
Based on the conversion ratio of approximately 0.6 common shares for each
preferred share, few would choose to convert their shares at current prices.
However, this attractive feature provides added flexibility and a potential
opportunity to cash in on a sharp advance in Capstead's common stock.
Going forward, there are reasons to believe that Capstead's shares could
increase in value. In late 2007 the company offered an additional 8 million
common shares for sale on the open market. This offering netted more than
$80 million for the firm, which it plans to use to buy more mortgages --
which should strengthen the company's future earnings.
Outlook: Capstead is well-managed and has a successful
track record of managing a leveraged portfolio of real estate securities, as
well as modest real estate holdings. In fact, while much of the industry
languished in 2008, Capstead's net income increased by more than +1,000%. And with most of its assets tied to
adjustable rate mortgages (backed by government-sponsored agencies), the
firm is somewhat protected from interest rate fluctuations. Looking forward,
the firm's core portfolio is well positioned to weather the storm in the
subprime mortgage sector.
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(5.) B&G Foods (NYSE: BGF)
Snapshot: The maker of B&G pickles, Ortega tacos and
sauces, and Grandma's Molasses, B&G Foods sells condiments and spices to
grocery chains and food service outlets. Wal-Mart is its biggest customer
and celebrity chef Emeril Lagasse's line of seasonings is its top-selling
brand. The snack food maker has manufacturing plants across the U.S., and sells its products throughout North America. Formed in 1996, BGF went public in October
2004 as an income deposit security.
Dividend: BGF had delivered dividends of $0.427 per share
from 2005 until the 3rd quarter of 2008. In October 2008, BGF reduced its
quarterly distribution to $0.385 The new dividend
rate, while still paying out the greater majority of its excess cash to
stockholders, provides a portion of excess cash to be retained for working
capital, and acquisitions.
The new dividend rate gives the
security an annual payout of
$1.54 and a yield of 14.0%. |
|
B&G Foods (NYSE: BGF)
|
Business:
This food maker owns such popular labels as Ortega, Las Palmas,
B&G, Emeril, and Accent, among others
Annual Payment: $1.54
Yield: 14.0%
Frequency: Quarterly |
|
The firm's total cash payments consist of $0.68 in common share dividends and $0.86 in interest income
from a bond yielding 12%. In 2007, over 90% of BGF's dividend was treated as a return of capital and
was therefore taxed by reducing the investor's cost basis when they sold the shares.
As usual, the bond interest is taxed as ordinary income, making the shares
suitable for tax-advantaged accounts.
Outlook: Thanks to a series of acquisitions, B&G has
grown since its start in 1996 from about $100 million in sales to roughly
$450 million. It has made several acquisitions over the years, including the
February 2007 purchase of Cream of Wheat and Cream of Rice from Kraft for
$200 million.
Brand recognition is the name of the game in the food industry. B&G
Foods has done an excellent job of leveraging the success of its top brands by developing a bevy of
products under such popular labels as Emeril, Ortega, and Polaner. Since
acquiring the Polaner line of preserves in 1999, B&G has transformed it
into North America's leading brand of low-calorie fruit preserves. It has
captured nearly a 50% share of the sugar-free preserve market by targeting
the rapidly growing diabetic population and appealing to widespread concerns
about obesity and nutrition.
Like other food makers, B&G was challenged by rising food and packaging
costs due to rising commodity costs. And currency prices are impacting the
bottom line too. Profit margins on its popular maple syrup brand had been hurt by
the appreciation of the Canadian dollar versus the U.S. dollar. But some of
these commodity price pressures appear to be subsiding.
In an effort to improve profit margins, the company has started shuttering
low-margin production facilities. In 2005, for instance, it closed its
large Trappey's hot sauce plant in Louisiana. BGF has also begun to raise
prices and has taken steps to reduce its workforce by 7.5%.
B&G has put together an attractive
portfolio of popular food brands that have been around for years and are
well-recognized by consumers. Acquiring new labels will continue to be an
important part of management's growth strategy. However, even more important
to the company's long-term success is its ability to adapt its products and
packaging to ever-evolving consumer tastes.
Margin pressures are a headwind, but the steps the company is taking to raise
prices and cut costs should continue to boost the bottom line. BGF's
dividend reduction improved the long-term sustainability of its
distribution, which is also aided by the substantial dividend safety built
into the income deposit security share structure. Given the improved
security of the dividend, as well as the firm's positive outlook, BGF
could make an excellent addition to a well-diversified income portfolio.
(7.) Conclusion
While many investors are drawn
to the prospect of earning quick profits, true investing success is seldom
found overnight. Legendary investors like Warren Buffett and Peter Lynch
have proven that the path to wealth lies in thorough research and a
long-term perspective. There are no shortcuts.
So, how did these legends beat the market over time? They did so by
capturing steady, consistent gains, year in and year out. Investing for the
long haul is really nothing more than a game of compounding by earning a
consistent return and reinvesting your profits back in the market over and
over again. And of course, the magic of compounding is most powerful when an
investor focuses on established companies that throw off a steady stream of
dividends.
We hope you noticed that this way of
thinking inspires the content found in this report. It is also the guiding
light for the other reports, newsletters, and extensive research available to
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