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The earliest nuclear power plants
were built back in the first half of the 1950s. Early proponents
predicted atomic energy would be an abundant source of cheap
electricity. In fact, in 1954 the chairman of the U.S. Atomic
Energy Commission, Lewis Strauss, famously stated that nuclear
energy would provide power "too cheap to meter."
Utilities the world over seemed to agree with Strauss; the 1970s
and early 1980s brought a building boom for nuclear power. In
1971, nuclear power accounted for about 2% of total global
electricity production. By 1987 that figure was closer to 17%.
But after 1986, the construction of new plants slowed to a
crawl. The primary culprit for the end of the building boom: the
Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident in April 1986. In the
wake of that disaster, many European countries stopped building
nuclear power plants entirely amid an outpouring of consumer
opposition.
In addition, the sell-off in the price of all sorts of energy
commodities that started in the early 1980s made nuclear a less
attractive option. Since that time, nuclear's share of global
electricity generation has remained roughly flat at 16-17%.
But
atomic power is making a comeback. There are currently
439 nuclear reactors operating in 32 countries; as our
chart indicates, nuclear power is the world's
third-largest source of electricity behind conventional
coal-fired plants and hydroelectric capacity. In some
countries, nuclear is even the dominant source of power.
For example, France generates nearly 80% of its
electricity using atomic energy.
According to the European Nuclear Society, there |
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are currently 35 new plants under
construction globally. In addition, 70 more are in the advanced
stages of planning. Together, this is equivalent to nearly
one-quarter of current capacity -- a new nuclear building boom
is underway.
Demand for electricity is surging globally, with most of that
growth coming from fast-growing emerging markets like China and
India. In fact, according to the Department of Energy, Chinese
and Indian power demand is expected to nearly triple between now
and 2030.
These nations (and many others) are choosing to expand their
nuclear power plant capacity to meet some of that demand. China
has been aggressively opening new plants in recent years and has
plans to open dozens more in an effort to triple nuclear's share
of electricity supply by 2030.
India has plans to open up as many as 15 plants over the next 20
years; the nation has been pursuing deals with the U.S. to
import more advanced nuclear power technology. In India, nuclear
power is expected to jump from 2.4% of supplied electricity
today to more than 8.5% in 2030.
Russia also has plans to open as many as 40 new reactors over
the next 20 years in an effort to reduce consumption of natural
gas; Russia would like to earmark more of its gas for export to
Europe.
And nuclear energy continues to grow in the developed world as
well. France, for example, is building new plants to replace its
aging fleet. Meanwhile, U.S. utilities are expected to file
dozens of new permits for nuclear plants in the coming years.
Italy
and Britain have recently announced plans to expand their
nuclear power plant capacity and replace existing models with
newer reactors. In both countries, polls have indicated that the
population is turning more friendly toward nuclear
power, reversing the trend witnessed
in the immediate years after Chernobyl. All told, the Energy
Information Administration (EIA) is
looking for nuclear power consumption to rise by +43% from 2005
to 2030. And the EIA has been consistently revising its outlook
for nuclear power's growth higher in recent years.
My staff and I see a few major reasons for nuclear power's
resurgence:
Rising Confidence in Safety -- In the immediate aftermath of
Chernobyl, many countries in Europe experienced a strong
reaction against nuclear power.
But subsequent examination of the Chernobyl accident suggests
the main cause was a reactor with a known defect coupled with an
inexperienced operating crew. Even worse, the reactor lacked the
sophisticated safety features designed to contain radiation and
automatically power down a plant in danger of a meltdown.
The only nuclear accident
to occur in the developed world was at Three Mile Island. But
while the plant's core melted down, there were no deaths
attributed to the accident, and radiation levels near the plant
never increased appreciably. The plant's safety measures totally
contained the risk.
Finally, the newest reactors being installed around the world
incorporate advanced safety features and technologies designed
to automatically shut a plant down in the event a meltdown is
possible. Thus, public sentiment toward nuclear plants and
safety is improving globally.
Rising Cost of Fossil Fuels -- The prices of natural gas, coal
and oil have all surged in recent years, raising the cost of
producing power. Most of the cost of electricity from natural gas and coal-fired plants is attributable to the cost of the
fuel itself -- as commodity prices soar, so does the cost of
generating power.
The cost of nuclear power is more stable over time. The main
expense is in the construction of plants -- uranium accounts for
only a fraction of the cost of nuclear power. According to the
World Nuclear Association, the cost of fuel, operation and
maintenance for a U.S. nuclear power plant totals 1.72 cents per
kilowatt hour, compared to 7.51 cents for a natural gas plant
and 2.21 for a coal-fired one. One thing to note: These
statistics are based on data from 2005. The rise in gas and coal
prices since that time make nuclear look even more attractive.
Environmental Concerns -- Coal is a cheap source of electricity,
and coal plants are less expensive than nuclear plants to build.
However, coal is also a dirty fuel that releases pollutants such
as sulfur dioxide and nitrous oxide. In addition, coal-fired
power plants are a major source of global carbon dioxide
emissions.
Most countries control emissions of these pollutants; over time,
regulations governing these emissions have become gradually
tighter. The European Union already seeks to limit
carbon dioxide emissions. Other countries, including the U.S.,
are likely to institute carbon dioxide regulations in
the coming years. This is a problem for coal-fired plants.
However, nuclear power plants are totally emissions free,
producing no carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide or sulfur dioxide. As
regulations on emissions become more stringent, nuclear power
plants become more attractive.
With these benefits in mind, the nuclear power industry is
likely to see a prolonged wave of growth in coming years. The
tables below offers a list of securities with exposure to the
nuclear energy boom.
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Securities with Exposure to Nuclear Energy |
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Security (Symbol) |
Security (Symbol) |
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Areva (OTC: ARVCF) |
USEC (NYSE: USU) |
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Cameco (NYSE: CCJ) |
MV Nuclear Energy
(AMEX: NLR) |
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Exelon (NYSE: EXC) |
PS Global
Nuclear
(NYSE: PKN) |
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Shaw Group (NYSE: SGR) |
iShares Global
Nuclear (Nasdaq: NUCL) |
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