Atomic Gains:
The Promise of Nuclear Energy

The earliest nuclear power plants were built back in the first half of the 1950s. Early proponents predicted atomic energy would be an abundant source of cheap electricity. In fact, in 1954 the chairman of the U.S. Atomic Energy Commission, Lewis Strauss, famously stated that nuclear energy would provide power "too cheap to meter."

Utilities the world over seemed to agree with Strauss; the 1970s and early 1980s brought a building boom for nuclear power. In 1971, nuclear power accounted for about 2% of total global electricity production. By 1987 that figure was closer to 17%.

But after 1986, the construction of new plants slowed to a crawl. The primary culprit for the end of the building boom: the Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident in April 1986. In the wake of that disaster, many European countries stopped building nuclear power plants entirely amid an outpouring of consumer opposition.

In addition, the sell-off in the price of all sorts of energy commodities that started in the early 1980s made nuclear a less attractive option. Since that time, nuclear's share of global electricity generation has remained roughly flat at 16-17%.

But atomic power is making a comeback. There are currently 439 nuclear reactors operating in 32 countries; as our chart indicates, nuclear power is the world's third-largest source of electricity behind conventional coal-fired plants and hydroelectric capacity. In some countries, nuclear is even the dominant source of power. For example, France generates nearly 80% of its electricity using atomic energy.

According to the European Nuclear Society, there
are currently 35 new plants under construction globally. In addition, 70 more are in the advanced stages of planning. Together, this is equivalent to nearly one-quarter of current capacity -- a new nuclear building boom is underway.

Demand for electricity is surging globally, with most of that growth coming from fast-growing emerging markets like China and India. In fact, according to the Department of Energy, Chinese and Indian power demand is expected to nearly triple between now and 2030.

These nations (and many others) are choosing to expand their nuclear power plant capacity to meet some of that demand. China has been aggressively opening new plants in recent years and has plans to open dozens more in an effort to triple nuclear's share of electricity supply by 2030.

India has plans to open up as many as 15 plants over the next 20 years; the nation has been pursuing deals with the U.S. to import more advanced nuclear power technology. In India, nuclear power is expected to jump from 2.4% of supplied electricity today to more than 8.5% in 2030.

Russia also has plans to open as many as 40 new reactors over the next 20 years in an effort to reduce consumption of natural gas; Russia would like to earmark more of its gas for export to Europe.

And nuclear energy continues to grow in the developed world as well. France, for example, is building new plants to replace its aging fleet. Meanwhile, U.S. utilities are expected to file dozens of new permits for nuclear plants in the coming years.
 
Italy and Britain have recently announced plans to expand their nuclear power plant capacity and replace existing models with newer reactors. In both countries, polls have indicated that the population is turning more friendly toward nuclear power, reversing the trend witnessed in the immediate years after Chernobyl. All told, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) is looking for nuclear power consumption to rise by +43% from 2005 to 2030. And the EIA has been consistently revising its outlook for nuclear power's growth higher in recent years.

My staff and I see a few major reasons for nuclear power's resurgence:

Rising Confidence in Safety -- In the immediate aftermath of Chernobyl, many countries in Europe experienced a strong reaction against nuclear power.

But subsequent examination of the Chernobyl accident suggests the main cause was a reactor with a known defect coupled with an inexperienced operating crew. Even worse, the reactor lacked the sophisticated safety features designed to contain radiation and automatically power down a plant in danger of a meltdown.

The only nuclear accident to occur in the developed world was at Three Mile Island. But while the plant's core melted down, there were no deaths attributed to the accident, and radiation levels near the plant never increased appreciably. The plant's safety measures totally contained the risk.

Finally, the newest reactors being installed around the world incorporate advanced safety features and technologies designed to automatically shut a plant down in the event a meltdown is possible. Thus, public sentiment toward nuclear plants and safety is improving globally.

Rising Cost of Fossil Fuels -- The prices of natural gas, coal and oil have all surged in recent years, raising the cost of producing power. Most of the cost of electricity from natural gas and coal-fired plants is attributable to the cost of the fuel itself -- as commodity prices soar, so does the cost of generating power.

The cost of nuclear power is more stable over time. The main expense is in the construction of plants -- uranium accounts for only a fraction of the cost of nuclear power. According to the World Nuclear Association, the cost of fuel, operation and maintenance for a U.S. nuclear power plant totals 1.72 cents per kilowatt hour, compared to 7.51 cents for a natural gas plant and 2.21 for a coal-fired one. One thing to note: These statistics are based on data from 2005. The rise in gas and coal prices since that time make nuclear look even more attractive.

Environmental Concerns -- Coal is a cheap source of electricity, and coal plants are less expensive than nuclear plants to build. However, coal is also a dirty fuel that releases pollutants such as sulfur dioxide and nitrous oxide. In addition, coal-fired power plants are a major source of global carbon dioxide emissions.

Most countries control emissions of these pollutants; over time, regulations governing these emissions have become gradually tighter. The European Union already seeks to limit carbon dioxide emissions. Other countries, including the U.S., are likely to institute carbon dioxide regulations in the coming years. This is a problem for coal-fired plants.

However, nuclear power plants are totally emissions free, producing no carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide or sulfur dioxide. As regulations on emissions become more stringent, nuclear power plants become more attractive.

With these benefits in mind, the nuclear power industry is likely to see a prolonged wave of growth in coming years. The tables below offers a list of securities with exposure to the nuclear energy boom.
 
Securities with Exposure to Nuclear Energy
Security (Symbol) Security (Symbol)
Areva (OTC: ARVCF) USEC (NYSE: USU)
Cameco (NYSE: CCJ) MV Nuclear Energy (AMEX: NLR)
Exelon (NYSE: EXC) PS Global Nuclear (NYSE: PKN)
Shaw Group (NYSE: SGR) iShares Global Nuclear (Nasdaq: NUCL)
    
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