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Wednesday, September 24, 2008 
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Escape the U.S. Financial Turmoil
-- By Andy Obermueller

     The United States isn't just facing a financial downturn at home, it's creating a net drag on the global economy.  And yet experts say worldwide growth will still be about 4% this year. The expansion will be fueled entirely by smaller, often overlooked countries like Argentina and Poland.  These healthy economies and their peers are solely responsible for making up America's lost ground -- and for staving off a global recession.

     Many of the companies in these countries have an additional advantage: They pay extraordinarily high dividends.  In today's issue, we'll provide you with a global economic snapshot, and we'll tell you about a security that's paying 12.6% -- nearly four times the U.S. average, but with none of its problems.  (Full Story Below)

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    Escape the U.S. Financial Turmoil

     Have you ever heard of Dominique Strauss-Kahn?

     He's a French national, 59 years old, who holds a law degree as well as a doctorate in economics from the University of Paris.  He taught college for a while, including at Stanford.  He also served in the French National Assembly, is a former cabinet official and even ran for president.

     Any of that ring a bell?

     Probably not.  And yet this erstwhile economics prof -- whose name you don't know and whose face you wouldn't recognize -- is now one of the most influential men in the world.

     He's not a head of state.  He's not a corporate CEO.  He's the managing director of the 185-nation International Monetary Fund (IMF), which oversees the global economy.  The fund's staff monitors worldwide financial activity, provides technical assistance and lends money to promote economic stability and stave off crises.

     And if you listen to Strauss-Kahn and his staff, you'll hear some very good portfolio advice.

     Here's what he recently said:

     "The consequences for some financial institutions are still in front of us.  We have to expect that there may be in the coming weeks and coming months other financial institutions with some problems," he told reporters last week.

     Now that's hardly revolutionary.  In fact, it sounds a lot like Strauss-Kahn was saying the IMF will have to wait and see which banks fail like everyone else.  But the IMF, in reporting its chairman's comments, edited in this critical aside:

     "IMF projections indicate a decline in global growth [from initial estimates of +4.8%] to about +4.0% in 2008, reflecting the slowdown in the United States, Europe."

     That's a truly remarkable statement, and it should change the way you invest.

     But it's subtle, almost in code.  Let's add a little context.

     The United States, Europe and Japan, as you know, are the three largest economic powers on earth. We need look no further than the IMF's own data to see that they produce 64.5% of the world's goods and services.  Given their dominant position, what happens in those three countries has long been the economic reality for the rest of the world.

     That is no longer true.

     It used to be said that when the United States sneezed, the rest of the world caught a cold.  Well, now the United States doesn't just have the sniffles, it looks as though it's been stricken with the plague.  The United States isn't going to see anywhere near the +4.0% growth the IMF is projecting, not this year and not for the foreseeable future.  The most exact estimates available predict the U.S. economy will expand by only +0.517% in 2008 and just +0.561% in 2009.  Japan and Europe will see growth rates of about +1.0%.

     And yet Strauss-Kohn and the staff at the IMF, who have access to the best macroeconomic data in the world, say that global growth is nevertheless going to clock in at +4.0% -- even despite the slowdown in Europe, the subprime mess in America, and malaise in Japan.

     Where is all that growth going to come from?  The smaller countries we overlook.  The continents we forget about.  The regions where we can't name a capital or head of state.  The three economic powerhouses might be ailing, but it turns out the rest of the world is as healthy as a horse, and their expansion is going to keep the world afloat and stave off a global recession.

     Go Where the Money Is

     China will grow at +9.8% this year and +9.0% next year.  Taiwan is projected to grow at a +4.3% rate, more than eight times the U.S., and Singapore and Hong Kong will post at least average growth.

     And remember: These are export economies.  If they're selling, that means the rest of the world is buying.
 
Country

Projected 2008 Growth

Angola +21.4%
China +9.8%
Argentina +6.0%
Brazil +4.8%
Taiwan +4.3%
United States +0.5%

     The growth picture is similar in South America -- Peru, Argentina and Uruguay will average about +5.0% growth this year, while Brazil, the fifth-largest country geographically and tenth-largest economically -- will see enviable +4.8% growth this year and +3.7% next.

     Eastern Europe and the former Russian republics are open for business and rolling like juggernauts.  Many African nations are predicted to exceed the global growth rate -- Angola by a factor of four -- and the Middle East will at least match South America.

     Strauss-Kahn is careful with his words and speaks with the tact of a diplomat.  But what he said couldn't have been more plain: The U.S. is part of the problem right now.

     Our nation is a net drag on international financial health.  Strong economies -- the so-called "emerging market" -- will be making up for the superpowers' lost ground.

     Redeploy Your Assets

     Economies are cyclical, and things eventually will improve here at home.  We think it will be a matter of years, not months.  Now, caution is always prudent, but there's no need to wallow in misery.  If you want to focus on Wall Street's unfortunate highlight reel, all you need to do is turn on the news.  But you're not going to recoup any of your losses doing that, let alone make any money.

     You can make money, however, by sending your dollars to work for you in strong international markets.  By doing so, you not only insulate your assets from the U.S. financial crisis, you also put them to work in a healthy economy where the ink is still black, not red.

     Now, U.S. investors tend to overlook the impact of dividends.  U.S. companies, primarily because of the nation's previous longstanding double taxation policy, tend to pay light dividends.  The S&P 500 pays an average 2.5% dividend -- not very exciting.

     But foreign countries offer substantially higher payouts.  New Zealand companies pay an average 8.6% dividend.  Taiwan is paying 5.8%.  And these are averages taken from their benchmark indices.  The strongest dividend payers in those markets -- and elsewhere around the world -- pay even higher.  We've been recommending a Taiwanese manufacturer that's currently paying 11.8%

     And these companies are stable, steady enterprises -- the most respected and highly trusted businesses in their countries.  They've paid out these high dividends for years and years, as reliably as Johnson & Johnson or Bank of America -- but with much, much higher yields.

     The impact of that yield cannot be understated.  If you invested $50,000 in a U.S. stock paying a 2.5% dividend and reinvested the gains, you'd have $64,000 in 10 years. 

     But if you invested in a country like New Zealand, where the average dividend is 8.6%, you'd have $114,000 in 10 years, a difference of +78.1%.

     Your Personal Guide to International Investing

     Now, you'll need a guide on your quest to find the world's richest dividend streams.  StreetAuthority is the leading income-oriented financial publisher in the U.S.  Nick Lanyi -- editor of StreetAuthority's premium High-Yield International -- and the rest of his team put decades of experience to work as they use the best information resources available to uncover the investments that will earn your portfolios the returns you deserve.

     Nick went Down Under to the Australian market, which is paying an average 5.0% yield.  Australia is predicted to deliver roughly six times U.S. growth this year and next.  Nick's favorite Australian pick is currently yielding 12.6%.

     Not only is this a high-yielding pick in a strong economy, but Australia is also a great place to capture enormous capital gains.  In fact, the market there has generated +86.2% in capital gains during the past five years.

     Compare all that to any stock in the United States, and the choice grows crystal clear.  The average U.S. company is delivering lower yields -- likely about a third of what Nick's Australian pick is paying.  Plus the overall Australian economy is far healthier than the United States'.  And, finally, the Australian market has historically beat the pants off its American counterpart: The five-year return for the S&P 500 is only +25.9%, which Australia beat by 60.3 percentage points.

     Some U.S. investors are anxious and think it's prudent to wait.  But a U.S. turnaround is going to take years.  No investor can afford to sit still -- especially now, knowing you can immediately invest in healthy markets with rich dividends and robust price gains.

     And believe it or not, we can make this decision even easier for you...

     That's because the Australian security Nick is recommending is an ETF that you can buy right now on the American Stock Exchange using your current brokerage account.  You can participate in the exciting Australian market without opening a new account, worrying about currency exchanges or filing tax credits to claim international dividends.  It's never been easier -- or more profitable -- to invest abroad.

     If you stick with domestic equities, you'll miss the opportunity to earn substantial income and capture strong capital gains.  You may think your portfolio is merely treading water.  It's not.  Its basket of U.S. stocks is drowning. 

     High-Yield International can be your lifeline.

     When you subscribe to this premium publication, you will receive priceless guidance on the fastest-growing and highest-yielding markets in the world.  But that's not all.  You'll also receive access to all of Nick's best international favorite international stocks and funds, including the Australian ETF yielding 12.6%.  Go here to learn more about High-Yield International.

Global Dividend Opportunities
GlobalDividends.com
839-K Quince Orchard Blvd. 
Gaithersburg, MD 20878-1614

P.S. -- Don't miss a single issue! Add our address, Editors@GlobalDividends.com, to your Address Book or Safe List. For instructions, go here.


Income Notes

David Jacob at Britain's Henderson Global Investors, believes asset-backed securities will not disappear and will be fine in the long run. "They're sensible structures and make good sense, but if you put rubbish loans in them and leverage them to the teeth, they're going to fall over and be disastrous."

-- Financial Times


Microsoft boosted its dividend by 2 cents a share earlier this week and announced a massive $40 billion buyback of its own shares. The software giant said it has returned $115 billion to investors through buybacks and dividends since 2003.

-- News reports


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