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Use This Tool Today to Evaluate the
Safety of Your Dividends
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-- By
Andy Obermueller |
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When it
comes to dividends, most investors are limiting themselves to one
measurement -- yield. And while yield is doubtlessly the vital
metric for income investors, being able to gauge a dividend's
stability is also critically important, especially when the economy
takes a turn for the worse.
Fortunately, we know a tool that does just that. The right tool can make any job easier, and you can use this
one today to determine whether your dividends are safe. (Full story, below)
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Use This Tool Today to Evaluate the Safety of Your
Dividends
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Everything
on Wall Street can be measured. Dividends are no exception. Payments to shareholders are typically
measured relative to the underlying stock
price. That's the figure investors know
as "dividend yield." But there's another, often-overlooked
dividend yardstick called the "payout ratio" that every
serious income investor should master.
This metric measures the degree to which a company's
earnings support its dividend. Expressed as a percentage,
the payout ratio relates a dividend to a company's earnings. There are two ways
it can be
calculated. Both are worthwhile
exercises, neither is difficult.
Let's take a look ...
The Big Picture: Total Dividends Paid vs. Net
Earnings
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The first way to calculate payout ratio is to compare net earnings to
total dividends paid.
Say a company's income statement shows it earned $5
billion in the latest quarter and its cash flow statement
shows it paid $2.5 billion in dividends. To
determine the payout ratio, divide the dividend,
$2.5 billion, by the net earnings, $5 billion. The result
is 50%.
That means the company paid out exactly half its
earnings. The chart at right shows what would happen
to the payout ratio if the total dividends paid
rose or fell.
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Total
Dividend |
Net
Earnings |
Payout Ratio |
| $500 million |
$5.0 billion |
10% |
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$1.0 billion |
$5.0 billion |
20% |
| $1.5 billion |
$5.0 billion |
30% |
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$2.0 billion |
$5.0 billion |
40% |
| $2.5
billion |
$5.0
billion |
50% |
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$3.0 billion |
$5.0 billion |
60% |
| $3.5 billion |
$5.0 billion |
70% |
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$4.0 billion |
$5.0 billion |
80% |
| $4.5 billion |
$5.0 billion |
90% |
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$5.0 billion |
$5.0 billion |
100% |
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Consider a real-world example: In the latest quarter, the drug maker
Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) paid out $2.13 billion in dividends and
had $2.28 billion in net earnings. (To make the math a
little easier, just ignore the billions and divide $2.13 by
$2.28.) Pfizer's payout ratio is 93.4%.
The Little Picture: Dividend Divided by EPS
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Annual
Dividend |
EPS |
Payout
Ratio |
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$0.50 |
$5.00 |
10% |
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$1.00 |
$5.00 |
20% |
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$1.50 |
$5.00 |
30% |
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$2.00 |
$5.00 |
40% |
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$2.50 |
$5.00 |
50% |
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$3.00 |
$5.00 |
60% |
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$3.50 |
$5.00 |
70% |
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$4.00 |
$5.00 |
80% |
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$4.50 |
$5.00 |
90% |
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$5.00 |
$5.00 |
100% |
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The next method of determining payout ratio uses smaller numbers. It looks at
the payout ratio on a per-share basis rather than
taking the entire company into account. (The result
will be the same.)
Say a company has annual earnings of $5.00 a share and pays an
annual dividend of $1.00. We then divide that
by EPS to calculate the payout ratio. It looks like
this: $1/$5 = 20%
Again, it might help to look at a real company's
results. Take Ingersoll Rand (NYSE: IR). Its dividend is $0.18 per quarter, or
$0.72 per year, and its earnings per share come in at $3.00. We
divide $0.72 by $3.00 and arrive at a payout ratio
of 24%.
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That's all there is to it. You've just learned one of
the most useful tools to determine how safe your dividends
are.
What's the Optimal Payout Ratio?
Now that you know how to
calculate payout ratio, it's a good idea to consider what
the ideal payout ratio is. As is the case with most
financial yardsticks, however, there is no hard-and-fast answer to that question.
Payout ratio
is like temperature: What might please one investor won't
suit another, and you have to go with what
you're comfortable with.
Usually, investors' first
reaction to the payout ratio is to conclude that the higher the
ratio, the better the dividend. That's perfectly
natural. After all, who wants to leave money on the table?
But while everyone likes to earn the greatest return
possible, a 100% payout isn't the best practice, as the
company will need some of that cash to operate. What's more,
it might
be wise to keep a little cash on hand in case an opportunity,
such as an acquisition, presents itself.
It's
also prudent for a company to allow itself some dividend breathing
room. If it commits to a high dividend and business conditions change,
the company might find itself in a position where it has no
choice but to cut the dividend. Certainly many companies have been finding themselves facing
exactly that situation.
Still, a relatively low
payout ratio -- say, less than 50% -- might point to a
company with a tepid commitment to its shareholders, or one
with some sort of need for the cash it generates.
Absent a strong yield, the serious income investor generally
looks past these shares. The best of both worlds, of course,
is a strong yield and a low payout ratio.
A Tale of Two Payouts
Take Pfizer. The drug maker, which has never cut its
dividend, must come up with $2.13 billion in cash every 90
days to pay it. That's a million dollars an hour. Pfizer,
as we calculated, is paying out almost all of its earnings.
In fact, the gap between Pfizer's net earnings and its
dividend obligation was only $147 million last quarter. That's shaving things very thin.
Now, to be fair, Pfizer, whose shares have held up well in a
bad year, didn't intend to engineer a near 95% payout ratio. Its typical payout ratio is a
far more comfortable 75%.
But say for the sake of argument that revenue were to
fall sharply next quarter.
Instead of earning $2.5 billion, Pfizer earns $1 billion. That's still
a tidy profit, but it's half what the company needs to pay the
current dividend. This would put
Pfizer -- or any company with a high payout ratio -- in a
pickle. No company wants to reduce, postpone or
eliminate its dividend, nor is using its cash savings to pay
it very appealing. (Wall Street tends to punish all of those
options.) It's the sort of dilemma
that will keep the CFO up all night.
But the finance chief at Ingersoll Rand? He may
have other concerns, but he doesn't have to sweat the
dividend. It's only $57 million a quarter,
and it's typically backstopped by $250 million in net
earnings. That's like having your house payment covered by a
factor of five -- and still living in a nice neighborhood:
Even with such a modest payout, Ingersoll's yield is a full point higher than the S&P
average.
With all of that in mind, a high
payout ratio loses some of its appeal. As a rule,
the lower the payout, the more stable the dividend
will be.
A modest payout ratio gives the company options that
a higher payout ratio may not.
What's more,
investors reward long-term dividend stability, even in a downturn. S&P's
"Dividend Aristocrats" -- companies that have hiked
dividends for at least 25 years -- have outperformed the
market by 12 percentage points this year, on top of generating cash for shareholders. Their
average payout ratio is 40.8%, though their average yield is
nothing special for serious income investors.
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To remedy that
and find some opportunities for much higher yields, I fired
up our trusty stock screener. I searched for U.S. companies
with more than $1 billion in market capitalization and a
dividend yield of more than 8.0%. I excluded banks, trusts,
utilities and MLPs, then rejected companies with higher
payout ratios. As you can see, some of the results are very
interesting, as they prove there are still safe yields in
this market!
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Company |
Yield |
Payout Ratio |
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Seagate (Nasdaq: STX) |
11.6% |
29.8% |
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Harley-Davidson (NYSE: HOG) |
8.0% |
32.7% |
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Dow Chemical (NYSE: DOW) |
10.8% |
55.1% |
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CenturyTel (NYSE: CTL) |
10.4% |
56.6% |
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Intl. Paper (NYSE: IP) |
8.6% |
63.1% |
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If I were deciding between two stocks for my income
portfolio, a 25% payout rate would win out over a 75% payout
every time. All other things being equal, a judicious
investor might well accept a slightly lower yield if the
security had a lower payout rate and a strong history of
steady dividend growth.
(NOTE: If you own REITS, energy trusts or master limited
partnerships, don't be afraid of the sky-high payout rate.
They're supposed to be like that -- those legal entities are
required by law to pass 90% of earnings along.)
Avoid Further Losses: Use this Ratio to Evaluate
Your Portfolio
Now that you know how to use the dividend payout ratio,
you should check each stock in your portfolio -- economic conditions point to the strong possibility of
further dividend cuts. Interest rates are low, but
credit is tight, and companies are viewing their cash as far
more precious than they have previously. Companies that are
cycling the lion's share of their operating profits back to shareholders might be
tempted to conserve cash by cutting the dividend. This not
only reduces your payout, it generally has a negative impact
on the stock price.
That's why checking the numbers can protect you from thousands of
dollars in losses -- and why you shouldn't wait another day
to do so. If companies in your portfolio
are paying out more than 75% of net earnings as dividends on
common shares,
you should put these dividends on the endangered list,
because they're liable to be reduced. The
cash crunch stemming from the current recession is likely to get worse before it gets better,
and only the companies who have established a prudent
payout are going to be able to continue their steady
payments to shareholders. Don't be caught off guard -- use
this tool today.
Many happy returns --

Andy Obermueller
Co-Editor
Global Dividend Opportunities
GlobalDividends.com
839-K Quince Orchard Blvd.
Gaithersburg, MD 20878-1614
P.S.
-- Don't miss a single issue! Add our address,
Research@GlobalDividend.com,
to your Address Book or Safe List. For instructions,
go
here.
Disclosure: Andy
Obermueller does not own shares of any stock featured in
today's issue.
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| Income
Notes
More dividend cuts may be in the works:
"It's been a horrible
year: Everybody's got negative
performance, so it makes sense to cut in
December," said Cecilia Gondor, an
analyst at Thomas J. Herzfeld Advisors.
"Better to have it now than in January.
You want to start fresh."
--
The Wall Street Journal
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"Investors
should weigh the 'dividend sanctity, earnings resilience and
earnings stability' of companies they own, said David Darst, who
helps oversee more than $700 billion as chief investment
strategist at Morgan Stanley Global Wealth Management in New
York. 'Dividends are going to be important if we're in a
sideways market.'"
-- Bloomberg
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