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Wednesday, December 31, 2008
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Use This Tool Today to Evaluate the Safety of Your Dividends

-- By Andy Obermueller

     When it comes to dividends, most investors are limiting themselves to one measurement -- yield. And while yield is doubtlessly the vital metric for income investors, being able to gauge a dividend's stability is also critically important, especially when the economy takes a turn for the worse.

     Fortunately, we know a tool that does just that. The right tool can make any job easier, and you can use this one today to determine whether your dividends are safe. (Full story, below)

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    Use This Tool Today to Evaluate the Safety of Your Dividends

     Everything on Wall Street can be measured.  Dividends are no exception.  Payments to shareholders are typically measured relative to the underlying stock price.  That's the figure investors know as "dividend yield."  But there's another, often-overlooked dividend yardstick called the "payout ratio" that every serious income investor should master.

     This metric measures the degree to which a company's earnings support its dividend.  Expressed as a percentage, the payout ratio relates a dividend to a company's earnings.  There are two ways it can be calculated.  Both are worthwhile exercises, neither is difficult. 

    
Let's take a look ...

     The Big Picture: Total Dividends Paid vs. Net Earnings

     The first way to calculate payout ratio is to compare net earnings to total dividends paid. 

     Say a company's income statement shows it earned $5 billion in the latest quarter and its cash flow statement shows it paid $2.5 billion in dividends.  To determine the payout ratio, divide the dividend, $2.5 billion, by the net earnings, $5 billion.  The result is 50%.

     That means the company paid out exactly half its earnings.  The chart at right shows what would happen to the payout ratio if the total dividends paid rose or fell.   

Total Dividend Net Earnings Payout Ratio
$500 million $5.0 billion 10%
$1.0 billion $5.0 billion 20%
$1.5 billion $5.0 billion 30%
$2.0 billion $5.0 billion 40%
$2.5 billion $5.0 billion 50%
$3.0 billion $5.0 billion 60%
$3.5 billion $5.0 billion 70%
$4.0 billion $5.0 billion 80%
$4.5 billion $5.0 billion 90%
$5.0 billion $5.0 billion 100%

    Consider a real-world example: In the latest quarter, the drug maker Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) paid out $2.13 billion in dividends and had $2.28 billion in net earnings. (To make the math a little easier, just ignore the billions and divide $2.13 by $2.28.)  Pfizer's payout ratio is 93.4%.

     The Little Picture: Dividend Divided by EPS

Annual Dividend EPS Payout Ratio
$0.50 $5.00 10%
$1.00 $5.00 20%
$1.50 $5.00 30%
$2.00 $5.00 40%
$2.50 $5.00 50%
$3.00 $5.00 60%
$3.50 $5.00 70%
$4.00 $5.00 80%
$4.50 $5.00 90%
$5.00 $5.00 100%

     The next method of determining payout ratio uses smaller numbers.  It looks at the payout ratio on a per-share basis rather than taking the entire company into account. (The result will be the same.) 

     Say a company has annual earnings of $5.00 a share and pays an annual dividend of $1.00. We then divide that by EPS to calculate the payout ratio. It looks like this: $1/$5 = 20% 

     Again, it might help to look at a real company's results. Take Ingersoll Rand (NYSE: IR). Its dividend is $0.18 per quarter, or $0.72 per year, and its earnings per share come in at $3.00. We divide $0.72 by $3.00 and arrive at a payout ratio of 24%. 
    

     That's all there is to it.  You've just learned one of the most useful tools to determine how safe your dividends are.

     What's the Optimal Payout Ratio?

     Now that you know how to calculate payout ratio, it's a good idea to consider what the ideal payout ratio is.  As is the case with most financial yardsticks, however, there is no hard-and-fast answer to that question.  Payout ratio is like temperature: What might please one investor won't suit another, and you have to go with what you're comfortable with.

     Usually, investors' first reaction to the payout ratio is to conclude that the higher the ratio, the better the dividend.  That's perfectly natural. After all, who wants to leave money on the table?  But while everyone likes to earn the greatest return possible, a 100% payout isn't the best practice, as the company will need some of that cash to operate. What's more, it might be wise to keep a little cash on hand in case an opportunity, such as an acquisition, presents itself.

     It's also prudent for a company to allow itself some dividend breathing room.  If it commits to a high dividend and business conditions change, the company might find itself in a position where it has no choice but to cut the dividend.  Certainly many companies have been finding themselves facing exactly that situation.

     Still, a relatively low payout ratio -- say, less than 50% -- might point to a company with a tepid commitment to its shareholders, or one with some sort of need for the cash it generates.  Absent a strong yield, the serious income investor generally looks past these shares. The best of both worlds, of course, is a strong yield and a low payout ratio.

     A Tale of Two Payouts

     Take Pfizer. The drug maker, which has never cut its dividend, must come up with $2.13 billion in cash every 90 days to pay it.  That's a million dollars an hour.  Pfizer, as we calculated, is paying out almost all of its earnings.  In fact, the gap between Pfizer's net earnings and its dividend obligation was only $147 million last quarter.  That's shaving things very thin.  Now, to be fair, Pfizer, whose shares have held up well in a bad year, didn't intend to engineer a near 95% payout ratio. Its typical payout ratio is a far more comfortable 75%.

     But say for the sake of argument that revenue were to fall sharply next quarter.  Instead of earning $2.5 billion, Pfizer earns $1 billion. That's still a tidy profit, but it's half what the company needs to pay the current dividend.  This would put Pfizer -- or any company with a high payout ratio -- in a pickle.  No company wants to reduce, postpone or eliminate its dividend, nor is using its cash savings to pay it very appealing. (Wall Street tends to punish all of those options.) It's the sort of dilemma that will keep the CFO up all night.  

     But the finance chief at Ingersoll Rand?  He may have other concerns, but he doesn't have to sweat the dividend.  It's only $57 million a quarter, and it's typically backstopped by $250 million in net earnings. That's like having your house payment covered by a factor of five -- and still living in a nice neighborhood: Even with such a modest payout, Ingersoll's yield is a full point higher than the S&P average.

     With all of that in mind, a high payout ratio loses some of its appeal.  As a rule, the lower the payout, the more stable the dividend will be.  A modest payout ratio gives the company options that a higher payout ratio may not.

     What's more, investors reward long-term dividend stability, even in a downturn. S&P's "Dividend Aristocrats" -- companies that have hiked dividends for at least 25 years -- have outperformed the market by 12 percentage points this year, on top of generating cash for shareholders. Their average payout ratio is 40.8%, though their average yield is nothing special for serious income investors.

        To remedy that and find some opportunities for much higher yields, I fired up our trusty stock screener. I searched for U.S. companies with more than $1 billion in market capitalization and a dividend yield of more than 8.0%. I excluded banks, trusts, utilities and MLPs, then rejected companies with higher payout ratios. As you can see, some of the results are very interesting, as they prove there are still safe yields in this market!     

Company Yield Payout Ratio
Seagate (Nasdaq: STX) 11.6% 29.8%
Harley-Davidson (NYSE: HOG) 8.0% 32.7%
Dow Chemical (NYSE: DOW) 10.8% 55.1%
CenturyTel (NYSE: CTL) 10.4% 56.6%
Intl. Paper (NYSE: IP) 8.6% 63.1%

      If I were deciding between two stocks for my income portfolio, a 25% payout rate would win out over a 75% payout every time.  All other things being equal, a judicious investor might well accept a slightly lower yield if the security had a lower payout rate and a strong history of steady dividend growth. 

     (NOTE: If you own REITS, energy trusts or master limited partnerships, don't be afraid of the sky-high payout rate. They're supposed to be like that -- those legal entities are required by law to pass 90% of earnings along.)

     Avoid Further Losses: Use this Ratio to Evaluate Your Portfolio

     Now that you know how to use the dividend payout ratio, you should check each stock in your portfolio -- economic conditions point to the strong possibility of further dividend cuts.  Interest rates are low, but credit is tight, and companies are viewing their cash as far more precious than they have previously. Companies that are cycling the lion's share of their operating profits back to shareholders might be tempted to conserve cash by cutting the dividend. This not only reduces your payout, it generally has a negative impact on the stock price.  

     That's why checking the numbers can protect you from thousands of dollars in losses -- and why you shouldn't wait another day to do so.  If companies in your portfolio are paying out more than 75% of net earnings as dividends on common shares, you should put these dividends on the endangered list, because they're liable to be reduced.  The cash crunch stemming from the current recession is likely to get worse before it gets better, and only the companies who have established a prudent payout are going to be able to continue their steady payments to shareholders. Don't be caught off guard -- use this tool today.
 
     Many happy returns --




 

Andy Obermueller
Co-Editor
Global Dividend Opportunities
GlobalDividends.com
839-K Quince Orchard Blvd. 
Gaithersburg, MD 20878-1614

P.S. -- Don't miss a single issue! Add our address, Research@GlobalDividend.com, to your Address Book or Safe List. For instructions, go here.

Disclosure: Andy Obermueller does not own shares of any stock featured in today's issue.

 
 

Income Notes

More dividend cuts may be in the works:

"It's been a horrible year: Everybody's got negative performance, so it makes sense to cut in December," said Cecilia Gondor, an analyst at Thomas J. Herzfeld Advisors. "Better to have it now than in January. You want to start fresh."

-- The Wall Street Journal


"Investors should weigh the 'dividend sanctity, earnings resilience and earnings stability' of companies they own, said David Darst, who helps oversee more than $700 billion as chief investment strategist at Morgan Stanley Global Wealth Management in New York. 'Dividends are going to be important if we're in a sideways market.'"

-- Bloomberg


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