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What the mind can conceive and believe, it
can insure (my apologies to Napoleon Hill).
You already know from personal experience about insurance on
your life, your house and your car. But maybe you didn't
know you could insure your wages, a business can insure its
directors and officers, and you can even insure your pet dog
against illness or injury.
More importantly, after much research, I can assure you that
in today's markets, select insurance securities can ensure
you lock in high, safe yields for years to come while also
offering capital gains potential. But there's a catch --
this chance isn't going to be around forever.
How quickly is this opportunity closing? The KBW Insurance
Index (KIX) covers 75% of the market capitalization of U.S.
insurance stocks across the industry. It includes household
names such as AFLAC (NYSE: AFL), Allstate (NYSE: ALL) and
Chubb (NYSE: CB). The index peaked at just over 150 in May
2008. When it hit its low of around 42 this past March, it
had fallen more than -70% -- far worse than the roughly -50%
decline in the S&P 500.
Since then, however, the S&P has recovered about +50% of its
value off its lows, but insurance stocks have rebounded an
astounding +125%. Even so, with a little digging you can
unearth select insurance securities that are still dirt
cheap, as measured by forward P/E ratios as low as 5 and 6
times next year's projected earnings (versus about 15 times
for the broader S&P 500).
Not All Insurers Are Ripe for the Picking
That's not to say you can throw all caution to the wind in
picking insurance stocks. It's far too risky to rush
willy-nilly into the sector, buying anything that has had a
price recovery since this March. Simply put, there are two
main problems with investing in just any insurance
company... but I've found solutions to both.
First is that insurers can and do run into trouble --
especially in tumultuous markets.
AIG is the best-known story of how the money-making
potential of insurers can fail miserably. When the subprime
mortgage crisis hit, AIG had to make good on insurance
contracts issued on mortgage-backed securities and credit
default swaps. Since its last profitable quarter about two
years ago, the company has reported losses of about $100
billion, losing $62 billion in the fourth quarter of 2008
alone.
In fact, some blue-chip bellwethers held such fragile
balance sheets that in April the U.S. government felt
compelled to step in and make $22 billion available to
insurers under the Capital Protection Program, a subsection
of TARP. The care package was made to some of best known
names in the industry -- Prudential, Principal Financial
Group, Lincoln National, Hartford Insurance Group, Allstate
and Ameriprise.
Even the best of the breed saw large investment income
declines last year as interest rates and the stock market
plummeted. Still, the strongest insurers remained profitable
while the storm raged and are now poised for continued gains
as the economy starts to stabilize. These names include
companies like Delphi Financial (NYSE: DFG), MetLife (NYSE:
MET), and Unum (NYSE: UNM). That's where I'm focusing my
attention.
How to Squeeze Out Higher Yields
Which brings up the second issue... dividend yields.
Insurance stocks as a group carry an average dividend yield
of only around 2.4%. I only bite on yields about three times
that level.
Luckily, I get a little more creative when it comes to
finding yields. That's why I'm looking into the debt
securities and preferred stocks of some of the stronger
insurers... instead of their common stocks.
So
far I've found yields as high as 10.6% from the senior
exchange-traded bonds (they are bonds, but trade just like a
stock on the NYSE) of the strongest insurers. I've also
uncovered 8.4% from their preferred stocks.
But if you plan to get in on these high yields, I would do
it with some urgency. Many of the yields are still higher
than normal thanks to the market's big sell-off. As things
get back to normal, I'm seeing them shrink almost by the
day. Your window of opportunity is closing quickly.
Good Investing,
Carla Pasternak's Dividend Opportunities
P.S. -- I brought my best insurance picks to
High-Yield Investing readers in my most recent
issue. Based on my research, I presented seven of my
favorites... including the 10.6% and 8.4% yielders I
highlighted above.
If you want to get into these picks at a good price, I can't
urge you enough to hurry. That 10.6% yielder has already
appreciated +15.4% since my August issue was published. To
receive my August newsletter, simply
subscribe to High-Yield Investing today.
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