Each
month government spending and policy expert Andy Obermueller brings
readers an in-depth look at how governments are creating hundreds of
profitable investment opportunities.
All
security prices are listed as of the close of trading on May 29, 2009.
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The Inevitable Future of
'Green' Energy
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Dear
Friends,
I have seen the future, and it looks a lot like Gillette, Wyoming.
This little town of about 20,000 people on the windswept western prairie
bills itself as the energy capital of the nation. That's underselling
things more than a little. In a few years, Gillette could well be the
energy capital of the world. As you read this, the most important energy
technology on earth is being developed there. A
massive company with significant ties to the U.S. government,
is building a 100-megawatt pulverized coal power plant.
With a twist.
But I'm getting ahead of myself.
This month's issue of Government-Driven Investing is centered on energy.
I dove into this topic because of the national reach, its primacy in the
headlines and the big profit opportunities available. What I found out floored me.
In today's issue I'll be telling
you about an emerging technology that I believe will be a gold mine in light of the
government's upcoming environmental regulation -- the "cap and trade"
bill, which I describe in plain English below.
This piece of game-changing technology
is a unique process that will allow the nation's power plants to
burn coal without emissions. The companies that control this
technology are going to make early investors a fortune. I'll tell you
how this breakthrough works and which company is going to benefit from it...
Cap-and-Trade
The Secret to Clean Coal Is
Nitrogen, Not Carbon
The formula for building
wealth in the CO2 space is simple: N. That's the chemical symbol
for nitrogen, one of the most common elements on earth. And it's the key
to clean-coal technology.
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Summary:
*The
'cap-and-trade' bill currently before Congress limits the
amount of CO2 industry can emit. It is a major part of the
Obama agenda.
*Coal is abundant and cheap. Coal-fired electric plants,
which generate most of the nation's power, are too expensive
to replace.
*The solution is to find a way to burn coal without
producing CO2. A handful of companies have figured out how
to do this. Their method, called oxy-coal, is recognized as
being perhaps the most promising environmentally-friendly
technology on the planet.
Action Required:
Industrial-gas leader
(Stock Name Reserved For Paid Subscribers) owns more
than 200 patents related to oxy-coal. It's a buy under $80.
I'm adding shares to my Government-Driven Investing
Portfolio at the closing bell on Monday, June 1st. |
Now, you're going to think
I'm nuts, but coal, that dirty old industrial power source, will prove
to be as "green" as wind power. A very simple chemical process -- one taught
in fourth-grade science class -- proves it. First, let me give you
some background.
A bill before congress sponsored by Reps. Henry Waxman and Edward Markey -- "The American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009" -- is the
most significant piece of environmental legislation in decades. The
legislation, currently in committee, has huge congressional support and
is a crucial element of Barack Obama's environmental agenda.
For years, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has regulated only a
handful of airborne substances, among them lead, particulate and sulfur
dioxide. But now, after an important ruling brought about after a
Supreme Court case that started in Markey's home state of Massachusetts,
the EPA is taking steps to use its authority under the Clean Air Act to
regulate the emission of carbon dioxide. The Waxman-Markey bill seeks to
dramatically reduce CO2 emissions using a system commonly known as "cap-and-trade."
Cap-and-trade works like this: The U.S. government sells allowances that
give companies the right to create a certain amount of carbon emissions.
Companies must buy enough
allowances to cover what they emit. If they produce less
emissions, then they can sell
their leftover permits to another firm. If they run short of allowances,
then they have to buy more. That's the "trade." The "cap" is that each
year the government sells progressively fewer permits, incrementally
lowering the amount of greenhouse gases pumped into the air. The law
would cover about 13,000 entities in the United States.
Two things produce significant CO2 emissions: Cars and coal. Let's
look
at coal. The U.S. uses 1.2 billion tons a year, primarily to fire 1,470
electric power plants that produce a total of 336,040 megawatts of
power. That's more than enough juice to power every home in the country,
with streetlights and ball fields thrown into the bargain. While
everyone is justifiably concerned about the nation's oil supply,
absolutely no one is even the slightest bit worried about running out of
coal. That's because we sit on an enormous supply of the stuff: 489
billion tons, enough for four centuries of use.
Not only does the United States have plenty of coal, but, in accordance
with the laws of supply and demand, it's cheap. It's also easy to move
by rail. And here's another important fact: Coal is burned in power
plants that would cost $672 billion and take years and years to replace.
That's
obviously not going to happen, certainly not by the time cap-and-trade
takes effect in the next few years.
The bottom line, then, is that our country and scores of other
industrialized, power-thirsty nations are going to continue to use
coal. So if coal and cap-and-trade are both the inevitable future -- and
they both are -- then there's only one solution.
Industry must find a way to burn coal in a fashion that produces no
emissions.
How Coal Plants Work Today -- and How They Will Work Tomorrow
It's worth reviewing how a coal-fired plant works. Basically, the
plant burns coal to heat water and create steam. That steam drives a
turbine that spins and generates electricity. Now, the two most
meaningful advances in coal-fired plants have been pulverizing coal,
which makes it burn more efficiently, and adding technology that reduces
particulate emissions so as not to cover the country with fly ash. Neither of these two advances is particularly recent.
Coal-fired plants use "ambient" air. That's a five-dollar way of saying
"whatever's outside." Most of the air out there, that is, most of what
we breathe and what coal-fired plants burn, is gas nitrogen. In fact, ambient air is 78% nitrogen and about 21% oxygen.
It turns out that all that nitrogen is the problem. When coal is burned
using ambient air, the resultant exhaust, called "flue gas", is a bunch
of nitrogen byproducts, carbon dioxide and water vapor. The water vapor
is easy to siphon off, but the nitrogen and the CO2 are hard to
separate.
The key to zero-emission coal is being able to capture a stream of
pure carbon dioxide, with no nitrogen byproducts. But that's hard to
do when you have to contend with a vast quantity of nitrogen: In fact,
flue gas from coal-fired plants is only about 12% CO2. So if you could
figure out a way to get the nitrogen out of the smokestack, that would
be the ballgame. All that would come out of that product would be pure
water vapor and pure carbon dioxide, which are very easy to separate.
Once separated, the CO2 could be stored -- tanked for industrial uses,
shot into alternative extraction oil wells or otherwise put
back into the ground whence it came. And the leftover water?
Harmless.
Which brings us back to Gillette, Wyoming. That's where the latest advance in
coal-fired electric generation will be tested. The plant will be exactly
the same as every other coal-fired plant in the country, except that it
will burn pure oxygen.
You see, the best way to get nitrogen out of the smokestack is not to
burn the stuff at all. It's an old trick, actually, something welders
have been doing for years.
This "oxy-fuel" technology -- firing plants with
pure oxygen instead of the ambient air -- means the country can still use cheap,
abundant coal to generate power. And best of all, the companies that develop and
implement this oxy-fuel technology are going to make a fortune.
We are talking about massive numbers: The United States alone emits
7.1 billion metric tons of CO2 a year, 35% of which comes from coal.
That's 2.5 billion tons a year just in this country. Federal statistics
show that "while natural gas is the fastest-growing energy source for
electricity generation worldwide, coal continues to provide the largest
share, by a wide margin, of the energy used for electric power
production. In 2005, coal-fired generation accounted for 41% of world
electricity supply; in 2030, its share is projected to be 46%."
Of course, this means
nothing if the United States is going it alone. But it's not.
Here's a
little morsel of goodness I ran across in the Wall Street Journal
on May 22nd:
| "China, in a new document outlining its stance ahead of December
climate talks in Copenhagen, says it wants developed nations to cut their greenhouse-gas
emissions by at least 40% by 2030 from 1990 levels, a significantly more aggressive
cut that what is being proposed by the U.S. Europe has pledged to cut emissions
by at least 20% by 2020 from 1990 levels, and by 30% if other advanced economies
follow suit." |
If that's the task, then there's a lot to be done: We have 325,000
megawatts of coal-fired power here in the States. China has 550,000
megawatts. Japan has 40,000, Germany 50,000, Britain 30,000. Each
of these plants is going to need to be retrofitted for oxy-fuel
technology.
Right now, the technology is pricey: The Department of Energy says it
costs $150 per ton of CO2, or up to 4 cents for every kilowatt hour of
energy. That's way too much: Such an increase would add +36% to the
average 11 cents per kilowatt hour that electricity costs in the United
States. But if the owners of the technology could get that price down
to $60 a ton or less, then the world will beat a path to their door.
And
quickly: The European deadline is less than 10 years away.
Here at home, there's a bit of legislation that you need to be aware of.
It's the Waxman-Markey bill I alluded to earlier. You see, the first
section of the bill, "Title I," provides for the support of the
development of carbon-capture and sequestration technology. Scientists
at the Department of Energy recognized the inevitable future long before
I did, and they've helped dozens of researchers work on experiments to
find the best carbon capture and storage (CCS) solutions.
Some of the players in the race for discovery have been academic
institutions, but the world's major corporations have been the real
driving force behind CCS research (their vote counts; they write the
checks). These executives' assessment of the potential is the same as serious
environmental leaders'. Both groups know that carbon capture is the only
way to cut emissions in a meaningful way. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimated
that CCS can reduce global emissions by up
to 55% by 2100.
Many of the companies that are funding this research are large power
companies, but the real sign that there is huge money to be made is that
most of the leading supporters of the technology are deep-pocketed
private companies. But among the big-money private entities and the
closed-door venture capital funds are a select few players with a
serious stake in oxy fuel. The most promising company is
(Stock Name Reserved For Paid Subscribers).
(Stock Name Reserved For Paid Subscribers) is a
$23.3
billion company that owns more than 200 patents related to oxy-fuel
technology, which it tends to call by the more specific name -- oxy-coal
technology.
(Stock
Name Reserved For Paid Subscribers) technology can give utilities the
opportunity to reduce emissions by more than 90%. The company is
currently building a 50-megawatt plant in upstate New York to
demonstrate the oxy-fuel process, which could transform the way thousands of
power plants are run and could end hundreds of billions of tons of CO2
emissions.
This isn't a long bet. This is going to happen. Right now, you're not hearing about it.
But you
will. |
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In
the meantime,
(Stock Name Reserved For Paid Subscribers) is the leading industrial gas supplier, one that was able to post an earnings increase in 2008 over
2007, a feat few companies managed. Its products are used in a
diverse array of end-markets, which insulates it somewhat and allows for steady,
non-cyclical growth, as you can see from my chart.
As a global industrial giant,
(Stock Name Reserved For Paid Subscribers) is well positioned to attract
large utility customers throughout the world. Only 55% of its revenues come from
North America. The company also has a strong presence in South America,
Europe and Asia -- all places where coal is a major source of
electric power.
Action to Take -->
(Stock Name Reserved For Paid Subscribers) is a strong buy under $80 per
share. I plan to add shares of
(Ticker Reserved For Paid Subscribers) to my Government-Driven Investing Portfolio
at the closing bell on Monday, June 1st.
This was just an excerpt from my
June issue of Government-Driven Investing. To access the complete
issue... which includes the name and ticker symbol of this "oxy-coal"
stock, subscribe to my newsletter.
You
can subscribe right here.
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Be good, do well and, as
always, many happy returns.
 
Andy Obermueller
Chief Investment Strategist -- Government-Driven Investing
StreetAuthority.com
839-K Quince Orchard Blvd.
Gaithersburg, MD 20878-1614
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